An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State-of-the-Art Dynamic Model Using Physics-Guided Data-Driven Approach

doi:10.1029/2018GL078319

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1029/2018GL078319
	An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State-of-the-Art Dynamic Model Using Physics-Guided Data-Driven Approach
	Sahana, A. S.1; Ghosh, Subimal 1,2
	2018-08-28
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2018
卷号	45 期号:16 页码:8510-8518
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	India
英文摘要	Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset, which marks the beginning of the South Asian monsoon, has significant implications on monsoon characteristics and subsequent nationwide agricultural planning. Here we make the most skillful prediction of monsoon onset with a physics-guided data-driven model integrated with the operational monsoon prediction by Coupled Forecast System version 2. Drivers of the variability of onset, which are well simulated by Coupled Forecast System version 2, viz., tropical Pacific sea surface temperature, reversal of tropospheric temperature gradient and strengthening of westerlies over AS during the early summer are identified as potential predictors. Data-driven method, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator, makes the final selection of predictors for the linear regression model of onset. We obtain an improved correlation of 0.6 between simulated and observed onset dates with the proposed integrated statistical dynamical model as compared to 0.44 obtained with the operational dynamic monsoon prediction model.
英文关键词	monsoon onset CFSv2 LASSO forecast of onset
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000445612500070
WOS关键词	CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; OBJECTIVE DEFINITION ; EL-NINO ; KERALA ; ENSO ; OSCILLATION ; TEMPERATURE ; WITHDRAWAL ; ANOMALIES
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/27928
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Bombay, Maharashtra, India; 2.Indian Inst Technol, Interdisciplinary Program Climate Studies, Bombay, Maharashtra, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sahana, A. S.,Ghosh, Subimal. An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State-of-the-Art Dynamic Model Using Physics-Guided Data-Driven Approach[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(16):8510-8518.
APA	Sahana, A. S.,&Ghosh, Subimal.(2018).An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State-of-the-Art Dynamic Model Using Physics-Guided Data-Driven Approach.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(16),8510-8518.
MLA	Sahana, A. S.,et al."An Improved Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Onset From State-of-the-Art Dynamic Model Using Physics-Guided Data-Driven Approach".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.16(2018):8510-8518.