Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL086224 |
On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California | |
van den Ende, M. P. A.1; Ampuero, J-P1,2 | |
2020-02-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; USA |
英文摘要 | Earthquake foreshocks may provide information that is critical to short-term earthquake forecasting. However, foreshocks are far from ubiquitously observed, which makes the interpretation of ongoing seismic sequences problematic. Based on a statistical analysis, Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725) suggested that as much as 72% of all mainshocks in Southern California is preceded by foreshock sequences. In this study, we reassess the analysis of Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725), and we evaluate the impact of the assumptions made by these authors. Using an alternative statistical approach, we find that only 15 out of 46 mainshocks (33%) are preceded by significantly elevated seismicity rates. When accounting for temporal fluctuations in the background seismicity, only 18% of the analyzed foreshock sequences remain unexplained by the background seismicity. These results imply that even in a highly complete earthquake catalog, the majority of earthquakes do not exhibit detectable foreshock sequences. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000529107400052 |
WOS关键词 | PROBABILITIES ; EARTHQUAKES ; SEISMICITY ; PREDICTION |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279615 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Cote dAzur, Observ Cote dAzur, CNRS, IRD,Geoazur, Valbonne, France; 2.CALTECH, Seismol Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van den Ende, M. P. A.,Ampuero, J-P. On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(3). |
APA | van den Ende, M. P. A.,&Ampuero, J-P.(2020).On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(3). |
MLA | van den Ende, M. P. A.,et al."On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.3(2020). |
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