On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California

doi:10.1029/2019GL086224

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1029/2019GL086224
	On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California
	van den Ende, M. P. A.1; Ampuero, J-P 1,2
	2020-02-16
发表期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2020
卷号	47 期号:3
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	France; USA
英文摘要	Earthquake foreshocks may provide information that is critical to short-term earthquake forecasting. However, foreshocks are far from ubiquitously observed, which makes the interpretation of ongoing seismic sequences problematic. Based on a statistical analysis, Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725) suggested that as much as 72% of all mainshocks in Southern California is preceded by foreshock sequences. In this study, we reassess the analysis of Trugman and Ross (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083725), and we evaluate the impact of the assumptions made by these authors. Using an alternative statistical approach, we find that only 15 out of 46 mainshocks (33%) are preceded by significantly elevated seismicity rates. When accounting for temporal fluctuations in the background seismicity, only 18% of the analyzed foreshock sequences remain unexplained by the background seismicity. These results imply that even in a highly complete earthquake catalog, the majority of earthquakes do not exhibit detectable foreshock sequences.
领域	气候变化
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000529107400052
WOS关键词	PROBABILITIES ; EARTHQUAKES ; SEISMICITY ; PREDICTION
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
引用统计	被引频次：29[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279615
专题	气候变化
作者单位	1.Univ Cote dAzur, Observ Cote dAzur, CNRS, IRD,Geoazur, Valbonne, France; 2.CALTECH, Seismol Lab, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van den Ende, M. P. A.,Ampuero, J-P. On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(3).
APA	van den Ende, M. P. A.,&Ampuero, J-P.(2020).On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(3).
MLA	van den Ende, M. P. A.,et al."On the Statistical Significance of Foreshock Sequences in Southern California".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.3(2020).