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To determine hydrologic changes in a warmer climate, we impose precipitation and potential evaporation (E-o) perturbations on hydrologic response functions constructed from precipitation and satellite soil moisture observations across the United States. Despite nonlinearities in the evaporation (E) and drainage (D) responses and opposing-sign perturbations, changes in individual fluxes are superposable. Empirical frameworks (Budyko) can misrepresent changes in E/D partitioning by neglecting shifts/trends in hydrologic regime and subseasonal precipitation dynamics. E/D both increase to balance mean precipitation ((P) over bar) increases, and increased E-o reduces soil moisture. E and D are generally more elastic to changes in (P) over bar than E-o. The results suggest that (1) the impacts of regional hydrologic perturbations may allow for simple superposition/scaling, (2) changes in timing/intensity of precipitation may have substantial impacts on mean moisture states and fluxes, and (3) changes to the distribution of surface moisture states are likely more relevant for E/D partitioning than common aridity indices.

Plain Language Summary We use satellite observations of soil moisture and expected increase in air temperature to determine how evaporation and soil drainage (to groundwater recharge and rivers/streamflow) will change in a warmer climate. The impacts of drier air, more rainfall, and more extreme rainfall (drier dry days and wetter wet days) can largely be considered separately and then added, which will help when predicting a specific location's water balance using scenarios from global climate models. In typical scenarios, soils are likely to dry, evaporation is likely to increase, and-when precipitation increases-drainage to groundwater/streams is likely to increase as well. Evaporation and drainage are relatively more sensitive to changes in precipitation and humidity in the Western United States than the East, and the Corn Belt is particularly susceptible to changes in precipitation intensity. Common methods of determining changes in evaporation and drainage, which neglect changes in soil moisture, may have large errors in global change scenarios.