GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1029/2019GL086753
Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill
Acosta Navarro, J. C.1; Ortega, P.1; Batte, L.2; Smith, D.3; Bretonniere, P. A.1; Guemas, V2; Massonnet, F.1,4; Sicardi, V1; Torralba, V1; Tourigny, E.1; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.1,5
2020-03-16
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2020
卷号47期号:5
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Spain; France; England; Belgium
英文摘要

Dynamical forecast systems have low to moderate skill in continental winter predictions in the extratropics. Here we assess the multimodel predictive skill over Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and midlatitudes using four state-of-the-art forecast systems. Our main goal was to quantify the impact of the Arctic sea ice state during November on the sea level pressure (SLP), surface temperature, and precipitation skill during the following winter. Interannual variability of the November Barents and Kara Sea ice is associated with an important fraction of December to February (DJF) prediction skill in regions of Eurasia. We further show that skill related to sea ice in these regions is accompanied with enhanced skill of DJF SLP in western Russia, established by a sea ice-atmosphere teleconnection mechanism. The teleconnection is strongest when atmospheric blocking conditions in Scandinavia/western Russia in November reduce a systematic SLP bias that is present in all systems.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000529112700012
WOS关键词COLD WINTERS ; MIDLATITUDE WEATHER ; AMPLIFICATION ; ENSEMBLE ; CONSEQUENCES ; PREDICTION ; OCEAN
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279764
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain;
2.Univ Toulouse, Meteo France, CNRS, CNRM UMR 3589, Toulouse, France;
3.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England;
4.Catholic Univ Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Ctr Earth & Climate Res, Earth & Life Inst, Louvain La Neuve, Belgium;
5.Catalan Inst Res & Adv Studies ICREA, Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Acosta Navarro, J. C.,Ortega, P.,Batte, L.,et al. Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(5).
APA Acosta Navarro, J. C..,Ortega, P..,Batte, L..,Smith, D..,Bretonniere, P. A..,...&Doblas-Reyes, F. J..(2020).Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(5).
MLA Acosta Navarro, J. C.,et al."Link Between Autumnal Arctic Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Winter Forecast Skill".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.5(2020).
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