Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL087008 |
Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts | |
Tippett, Michael K.1; 39;Heureux, Michelle L.2 | |
2020-04-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 47期号:8 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The unanticipated stalled El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution of 2014 raises questions about the reliability of the coupled models that were used for forecast guidance. Here we have analyzed the skill and reliability of forecasts of the Nino 3.4 tendency (3-month change) in the North American multimodel ensemble (1982-2018). We found that forecasts initialized April-June (AMJ) have "excessive momentum" in the sense that the forecast Nino 3.4 tendency is more likely to be a continuation of the prior observed conditions than it should be. Models tend to predict warming when initialized after observed warming conditions and cooling when initialized after observed cooling conditions. Excessive momentum appears in AMJ forecast busts and false alarms including the 2014 one. In some models, excessive momentum appears to be related to model formulation rather than initialization. A concerning trend is that four of the nine years with AMJ forecast busts occurred in the last decade. |
英文关键词 | ENSO prediction forecast busts |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000530332600002 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EL-NINO ; ANNUAL CYCLE ; PREDICTABILITY ; PERSISTENCE ; PREDICTION ; BARRIER |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/279881 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY 10027 USA; 2.NOAA, NWS, NCEP, Climate Predict Ctr, College Pk, MD USA; 3.Univ Miami, CIMAS, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tippett, Michael K.,39;Heureux, Michelle L.. Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,47(8). |
APA | Tippett, Michael K.,&39;Heureux, Michelle L..(2020).Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,47(8). |
MLA | Tippett, Michael K.,et al."Excessive Momentum and False Alarms in Late-Spring ENSO Forecasts".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 47.8(2020). |
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