Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0663-x |
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming | |
Li, Shujun1,2,3; Wu, Lixin1,2; Yang, Yun4; Geng, Tao1,2,3; Cai, Wenju1,2,3; Gan, Bolan1,2; Chen, Zhaohui1,2; Jing, Zhao1,2; Wang, Guojian1,2,3; Ma, Xiaohui1,2 | |
2020 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
![]() |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 10期号:1页码:30-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Australia |
英文摘要 | The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the most prominent form of decadal variability over the North Pacific, characterized by its horseshoe-shaped sea surface temperature anomaly pattern(1,2). The PDO exerts a substantial influence on marine ecosystems, fisheries and agriculture(1-3). Through modulating global mean temperature, the phase shift of the PDO at the end of the twentieth century is suggested to be an influential factor in the recent surface warming hiatus(4,5). Determining the predictability of the PDO in a warming climate is therefore of great importance(6). By analysing future climate under different emission scenarios simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (ref. (7)), we show that the prediction lead time and the associated amplitude of the PDO decrease sharply under greenhouse warming conditions. This decrease is largely attributable to a warming-induced intensification of oceanic stratification, which accelerates the propagation of Rossby waves, shortening the PDO lifespan and suppressing its amplitude by limiting its growth time. Our results suggest that greenhouse warming will make prediction of the PDO more challenging, with far-reaching ramifications. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a natural climate cycle, alters global climate and influences ecosystems as it varies between positive and negative phases. PDO predictability is reduced under warming as intensified ocean stratification shortens its lifespan and curtails its amplitude. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000508087400015 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; INTERDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; NORTH PACIFIC ; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; OCEAN ; MODEL ; THERMOCLINE ; DIAGNOSIS ; UPGRADES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280358 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Peoples R China; 3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 4.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Shujun,Wu, Lixin,Yang, Yun,et al. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2020,10(1):30-+. |
APA | Li, Shujun.,Wu, Lixin.,Yang, Yun.,Geng, Tao.,Cai, Wenju.,...&Ma, Xiaohui.(2020).The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,10(1),30-+. |
MLA | Li, Shujun,et al."The Pacific Decadal Oscillation less predictable under greenhouse warming".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 10.1(2020):30-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论