Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025436 |
Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis | |
Do, Nhu Cuong1,2,3; Razavi, Saman4,5 | |
2020-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 56期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada; Australia; Vietnam |
英文摘要 | Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) provides essential insights into the behavior of Earth and environmental systems models and identifies dominant controls of output uncertainty. Previous work on GSA, however, has typically been under the assumption that the controlling factors such as model inputs and parameters are independent, whereas, in many cases, they are correlated and their joint distribution follows a variety of forms. Although this assumption can limit the credibility of GSA and its results, very few studies in the field of water and environmental modeling address this issue. In this paper, we first discuss the significance of correlation effects in GSA and then propose a new GSA framework for properly accounting for correlations in input/parameter spaces. To this end, we extend the "variogram-based" theory of GSA, called variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS), and develop a new generalized star sampling technique (called gSTAR) to accommodate correlated multivariate distributions. We test the new gSTAR-VARS method on two test functions, against a state-of-the-art GSA method that handles correlation effects. We then apply gSTAR-VARS to the HBV-SASK model, calibrated via a Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, for design flood estimation in the Oldman River Basin in Canada. Results demonstrate that accounting for correlation effects can be critically important in GSA, especially in the presence of nonlinearity and interaction effects in the underlying response surfaces. The proposed method can efficiently handle correlations and different distribution types and simultaneously generate a range of sensitivity indices, such as total-variogram effects, variance-based total-order effects, and derivative-based elementary effects. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000538000800032 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ; MODELS ; FRAMEWORK ; EFFICIENT ; INDEXES ; ROBUST ; TOOL ; IDENTIFICATION ; STRATEGIES ; OUTPUT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280582 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; 2.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3.Thuy Loi Univ, Dept Construct Management, Hanoi, Vietnam; 4.Univ Saskatchewan, Glohal Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada; 5.Univ Saskatchewan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Saskatoon, SK, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Do, Nhu Cuong,Razavi, Saman. Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(3). |
APA | Do, Nhu Cuong,&Razavi, Saman.(2020).Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(3). |
MLA | Do, Nhu Cuong,et al."Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.3(2020). |
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