GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1029/2019WR025436
Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
Do, Nhu Cuong1,2,3; Razavi, Saman4,5
2020-03-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2020
卷号56期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Canada; Australia; Vietnam
英文摘要

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) provides essential insights into the behavior of Earth and environmental systems models and identifies dominant controls of output uncertainty. Previous work on GSA, however, has typically been under the assumption that the controlling factors such as model inputs and parameters are independent, whereas, in many cases, they are correlated and their joint distribution follows a variety of forms. Although this assumption can limit the credibility of GSA and its results, very few studies in the field of water and environmental modeling address this issue. In this paper, we first discuss the significance of correlation effects in GSA and then propose a new GSA framework for properly accounting for correlations in input/parameter spaces. To this end, we extend the "variogram-based" theory of GSA, called variogram analysis of response surfaces (VARS), and develop a new generalized star sampling technique (called gSTAR) to accommodate correlated multivariate distributions. We test the new gSTAR-VARS method on two test functions, against a state-of-the-art GSA method that handles correlation effects. We then apply gSTAR-VARS to the HBV-SASK model, calibrated via a Bayesian, Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, for design flood estimation in the Oldman River Basin in Canada. Results demonstrate that accounting for correlation effects can be critically important in GSA, especially in the presence of nonlinearity and interaction effects in the underlying response surfaces. The proposed method can efficiently handle correlations and different distribution types and simultaneously generate a range of sensitivity indices, such as total-variogram effects, variance-based total-order effects, and derivative-based elementary effects.


领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000538000800032
WOS关键词GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ; MODELS ; FRAMEWORK ; EFFICIENT ; INDEXES ; ROBUST ; TOOL ; IDENTIFICATION ; STRATEGIES ; OUTPUT
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/280582
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Saskatchewan, Global Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;
2.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia;
3.Thuy Loi Univ, Dept Construct Management, Hanoi, Vietnam;
4.Univ Saskatchewan, Glohal Inst Water Secur, Saskatoon, SK, Canada;
5.Univ Saskatchewan, Sch Environm & Sustainabil, Saskatoon, SK, Canada
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Do, Nhu Cuong,Razavi, Saman. Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2020,56(3).
APA Do, Nhu Cuong,&Razavi, Saman.(2020).Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,56(3).
MLA Do, Nhu Cuong,et al."Correlation Effects? A Major but Often Neglected Component in Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 56.3(2020).
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