资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study was designed to evaluate the spatiotemporal performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the historical simulation and future projections of minimum (T_min), maximum (T_max), and mean temperature (T_mean) over South Asia (SA) during global warming of 1.5 ^oC, 2 ^oC, and 3 ^oC targets under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is worth mentioning that the present study is the first of its kind to use such a large number of CMIP5 models to project future changes in T_min, T_max, and T_mean over SA using three different warming thresholds. The results show that CSIRO–MK3–6–0, MIROC–ESM–CHEM, CNRM–CM5, CCSM4, and MRI–CGCM3 models relatively performed better with a consistent and accurate spatiotemporal simulation of T_min, T_max, and T_mean over SA. In terms of projected changes, T_min, T_max, and T_mean show a dominating and consistent warming pattern over SA with stronger intensity in higher latitude than mid–low latitudes under 1.5 ^oC, 2 ^oC, and 3 ^oC warming thresholds. The northwestern (eastern) regions of SA will witness greater (least) warming in T_min, T_max, and T_mean under all warming thresholds in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the central and southern parts of SA will experience a moderate increase in T_min, T_max, and T_mean under all warming targets. The uneven and intensified patterns of T_min, T_max, and T_mean may result in temperature extremes, which would pose potential risks to the local population. Therefore, more attention should be paid on the regional and local perspectives to estimate the adverse impacts of these extremes under different global warming targets. We further suggest to project future changes in climate extremes over SA under different warming levels, which will be helpful in climate change adaptation and mitigation over the study region.