资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Biogenic very short-lived bromocarbons (VSLBr) currently represent similar to 25 % of the total stratospheric bromine loading. Owing to their much shorter lifetime compared to anthropogenic long-lived bromine (e.g. halons) and chlorine (e.g. chlorofluorocarbons), the impact of VSLBr on ozone peaks in the lowermost stratosphere, which is a key climatic and radiative atmospheric region. Here we present a modelling study of the evolution of stratospheric ozone and its chemical loss within the tropics and at mid-latitudes during the 21st century. Two different experiments are explored: considering and neglecting the additional stratospheric injection of 5 ppt biogenic bromine naturally released from the ocean. Our analysis shows that the inclusion of VSLBr results in a realistic stratospheric bromine loading and improves the agreement between the model and satellite observations of the total ozone column (TOC) for the 1980-2015 period at mid-latitudes. We show that the overall ozone response to VSLBr at mid-latitudes follows the stratospheric evolution of long-lived inorganic chlorine and bromine throughout the 21st century. Additional ozone loss due to VSLBr is maximized during the present-day period (1990-2010), with TOC differences of -8 DU (-3 %) and -5.5 DU (-2 %) for the Southern Hemisphere and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (SH-MLs and NH-MLs), respectively. Moreover, the projected TOC differences at the end of the 21st century are similar to 50 % lower than the values found for the present-day period.

We find that seasonal VSLBr impact on lowermost stratospheric ozone at mid-latitude is influenced by the seasonality of the heterogeneous inorganic-chlorine reactivation processes on ice crystals. Indeed, due to the more efficient reactivation of chlorine reservoirs (mainly ClONO2 and HCl) within the colder SH-ML lowermost stratosphere, the seasonal VSLBr impact shows a small but persistent hemispheric asymmetry through the whole modelled period. Our results indicate that, although the overall VSLBr -driven ozone destruction is greatest during spring, the halogen-mediated (Halog(x-Loss)) ozone loss cycle in the mid-latitude lower-most stratosphere during winter is comparatively more efficient than the HOx cycle with respect to other seasons. Indeed, when VSLBr are considered, Halog(x-Loss) dominates wintertime lowermost stratospheric ozone loss at SH-MLs between 1985 and 2020, with a contribution of inter-halogen ClOx-BrOx cycles to Halog(x-Loss) of similar to 50 %.

Within the tropics, a small (< -2.5 DU) and relatively constant (similar to -1 %) ozone depletion mediated by VSLBr is closely related to their fixed emissions throughout the modelled period. By including the VSLBr sources, the seasonal Halog(x-Loss) contribution to lowermost stratospheric ozone loss is practically dominated by the BrOx cycle, reflecting the low sensitivity of very short-lived (VSL) bromine to background halogen abundances to drive tropical stratospheric ozone depletion. We conclude that the link between biogenic bromine sources and seasonal changes in heterogeneous chlorine reactivation is a key feature for future projections of mid-latitude lowermost stratospheric ozone during the 21st century.