Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41467-020-17375-2 |
Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand | |
Dempsey, D. E.; Cronin, S. J.; Mei, S.; Kempa-Liehr, A. W. | |
2020-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
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ISSN | 2041-1723 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 11期号:1 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | New Zealand |
英文摘要 | Sudden steam-driven eruptions strike without warning and are a leading cause of fatalities at touristic volcanoes. Recent deaths following the 2019 Whakaari eruption in New Zealand expose a need for accurate, short-term forecasting. However, current volcano alert systems are heuristic and too slowly updated with human input. Here, we show that a structured machine learning approach can detect eruption precursors in real-time seismic data streamed from Whakaari. We identify four-hour energy bursts that occur hours to days before most eruptions and suggest these indicate charging of the vent hydrothermal system by hot magmatic fluids. We developed a model to issue short-term alerts of elevated eruption likelihood and show that, under cross-validation testing, it could provide advanced warning of an unseen eruption in four out of five instances, including at least four hours warning for the 2019 eruption. This makes a strong case to adopt real-time forecasting models at active volcanoes. |
领域 | 地球科学 ; 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000552415700002 |
WOS关键词 | LONG-TERM ; SYSTEM ; TREMOR |
WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/284274 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | Univ Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dempsey, D. E.,Cronin, S. J.,Mei, S.,et al. Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2020,11(1). |
APA | Dempsey, D. E.,Cronin, S. J.,Mei, S.,&Kempa-Liehr, A. W..(2020).Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,11(1). |
MLA | Dempsey, D. E.,et al."Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 11.1(2020). |
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