Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2020GL088415 |
The sources of uncertainty in the projection of global land monsoon precipitation | |
Tianjun Zhou; Jingwen Lu; Wenxia Zhang; Ziming Chen | |
2020-07-29 | |
发表期刊 | Geophysical Research Letters
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出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Policy‐makers need reliable future climate projection for adaptation purposes. A clear separation of sources of uncertainty also helps narrow the projection uncertainty. However, it remains unclear for monsoon precipitation projections. Here we quantified the contributions of internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty to the ensemble spread of global land monsoon precipitation projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models and single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles (SMILEs). For mean precipitation, model uncertainty (contributing ~90%) dominates the projection uncertainty, while the contribution of internal variability (scenario uncertainty) decreases (increases) with time. The source of uncertainty for extreme precipitation differs from that of mean precipitation mainly in long‐term projection, with the contribution of scenario uncertainty comparable to model uncertainty. Reducing model uncertainty can effectively narrow the monsoon precipitation projection. The internal variability estimates differ slightly among models and methods, the uncertainty partitioning is robust in mid‐long term. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
URL | 查看原文 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/286602 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tianjun Zhou,Jingwen Lu,Wenxia Zhang,et al. The sources of uncertainty in the projection of global land monsoon precipitation[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2020. |
APA | Tianjun Zhou,Jingwen Lu,Wenxia Zhang,&Ziming Chen.(2020).The sources of uncertainty in the projection of global land monsoon precipitation.Geophysical Research Letters. |
MLA | Tianjun Zhou,et al."The sources of uncertainty in the projection of global land monsoon precipitation".Geophysical Research Letters (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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