Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL073958 |
Long-term Caspian Sea level change | |
Chen, J. L.1; Pekker, T.1; Wilson, C. R.1,2; Tapley, B. D.1; Kostianoy, A. G.3,4; Cretaux, J. -F.5; Safarov, E. S.6 | |
2017-07-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 44期号:13 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Russia; France; Azerbaijan |
英文摘要 | Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop (similar to-6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of similar to+12.38 and similar to-6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000406257400061 |
WOS关键词 | REANALYSIS ; CONNECTION ; REGIME ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28678 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Texas Austin, Ctr Space Res, Austin, TX 78712 USA; 2.Univ Texas Austin, Dept Geol Sci, Dept Geol Sci, Austin, TX USA; 3.PP Shirshov Inst Oceanol, Moscow, Russia; 4.S Yu Witte Moscow Univ, Lab Integrated Studies Water Resources, Moscow, Russia; 5.Legos CNES, Toulouse, France; 6.Inst Geog, Dept Caspian Sea Level Problem, Baku, Azerbaijan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, J. L.,Pekker, T.,Wilson, C. R.,et al. Long-term Caspian Sea level change[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2017,44(13). |
APA | Chen, J. L..,Pekker, T..,Wilson, C. R..,Tapley, B. D..,Kostianoy, A. G..,...&Safarov, E. S..(2017).Long-term Caspian Sea level change.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,44(13). |
MLA | Chen, J. L.,et al."Long-term Caspian Sea level change".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 44.13(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论