资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

We use a dynamic global forest model to examine how U.S. tax reform could influence forest stocks and carbon sequestration. Scenario analysis estimates several impacts from adjusting current policies that affect timberland investment, area, harvests, and carbon. First, increases in tax rates faced by timberland owners cause timber assets to be revalued downward even though the physical forest is initially unchanged, resulting in substantial declines in both regeneration and management. Second, timber stocks fall over time, reflecting a decrease in investment. Third, tax revenues could increase by nearly $3.4 billion/yr compared to baseline, but at the expense of increasing trade deficits by up to $3.3 billion/yr. Fourth, timberland area could decrease by 12 million hectares. Last, cumulative carbon sequestration over the next 50 years could be reduced by more than 3 billion tCO2e, −22% from the current policy baseline if forestland tax incentives are removed. Fifth, maintaining the existing tax policies in perpetuity incentivizes carbon sequestration levels equivalent to imposing a price of $70/tCO2e on the forest sector, highlighting the ecosystem service benefits of maintaining current tax policy. Finally, we estimate that current US forest tax policy provides about $8 billion/yr in climate change mitigation benefits by 2050.