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DOI10.1002/2017GL076079
Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions
Samset, B. H.1; Sand, M.1; Smith, C. J.2; Bauer, S. E.3,4; Forster, P. M.2; Fuglestvedt, J. S.1; Osprey, S.5,6; Schleussner, C. -F.7
2018-01-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2018
卷号45期号:2页码:1020-1029
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Norway; England; USA; Germany
英文摘要

Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1 degrees C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.


Plain Language Summary To keep within 1.5 or 2 degrees of global warming, we need massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, aerosol emissions will be strongly reduced. We show how cleaning up aerosols, predominantly sulfate, may add an additional half a degree of global warming, with impacts that strengthen those from greenhouse gas warming. The northern hemisphere is found to be more sensitive to aerosol removal than greenhouse gas warming, because of where the aerosols are emitted today. This means that it does not only matter whether or not we reach international climate targets. It also matters how we get there.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000425514300060
WOS关键词EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; EXTREMES INDEXES ; FUTURE CHANGES ; SIMULATIONS ; NORESM1-M ; RESPONSES ; BUDGETS ; SPREAD ; END
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28767
专题气候变化
作者单位1.CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway;
2.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England;
3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
4.Columbia Earth Inst, New York, NY USA;
5.Univ Oxford, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Oxford, England;
6.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England;
7.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Samset, B. H.,Sand, M.,Smith, C. J.,et al. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(2):1020-1029.
APA Samset, B. H..,Sand, M..,Smith, C. J..,Bauer, S. E..,Forster, P. M..,...&Schleussner, C. -F..(2018).Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(2),1020-1029.
MLA Samset, B. H.,et al."Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.2(2018):1020-1029.
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