Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017GL076079 |
Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions | |
Samset, B. H.1; Sand, M.1; Smith, C. J.2; Bauer, S. E.3,4; Forster, P. M.2; Fuglestvedt, J. S.1; Osprey, S.5,6; Schleussner, C. -F.7 | |
2018-01-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:2页码:1020-1029 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Norway; England; USA; Germany |
英文摘要 | Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1 degrees C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing. Plain Language Summary To keep within 1.5 or 2 degrees of global warming, we need massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, aerosol emissions will be strongly reduced. We show how cleaning up aerosols, predominantly sulfate, may add an additional half a degree of global warming, with impacts that strengthen those from greenhouse gas warming. The northern hemisphere is found to be more sensitive to aerosol removal than greenhouse gas warming, because of where the aerosols are emitted today. This means that it does not only matter whether or not we reach international climate targets. It also matters how we get there. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425514300060 |
WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; EXTREMES INDEXES ; FUTURE CHANGES ; SIMULATIONS ; NORESM1-M ; RESPONSES ; BUDGETS ; SPREAD ; END |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28767 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, Oslo, Norway; 2.Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; 3.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA; 4.Columbia Earth Inst, New York, NY USA; 5.Univ Oxford, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Oxford, England; 6.Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England; 7.Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Samset, B. H.,Sand, M.,Smith, C. J.,et al. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(2):1020-1029. |
APA | Samset, B. H..,Sand, M..,Smith, C. J..,Bauer, S. E..,Forster, P. M..,...&Schleussner, C. -F..(2018).Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(2),1020-1029. |
MLA | Samset, B. H.,et al."Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.2(2018):1020-1029. |
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