Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a |
Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets | |
Jones, Chris D.1; Friedlingstein, Pierre2,3 | |
2020-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
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ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 15期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; France |
英文摘要 | To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO(2)emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE-the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions-we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 degrees C. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us to determine how we can better direct our research priorities in order to reduce this uncertainty. We emphasise that uses of carbon budget estimates must bear in mind the uncertainty stemming from the biogeophysical Earth system, and we recommend specific areas where the carbon cycle research community needs to re-focus activity in order to try to reduce this uncertainty. We conclude that we should revise focus from the climate feedback on the carbon cycle to place more emphasis on CO(2)as the main driver of carbon sinks and their long-term behaviour. Our proposed framework will enable multiple constraints on components of the carbon cycle to propagate to constraints on remaining carbon budgets. |
英文关键词 | carbon budgets carbon cycle feedbacks constraints research priorities |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000546895500001 |
WOS关键词 | CUMULATIVE CO2 EMISSIONS ; TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; CYCLE FEEDBACKS ; PROPORTIONALITY ; SENSITIVITY ; OCEAN ; PROJECTIONS ; CONSISTENT ; PATHWAYS ; IMPROVE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289372 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 2.Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England; 3.UPMC X, CNRS, ENS, Lab Meteorol Dynam,Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jones, Chris D.,Friedlingstein, Pierre. Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2020,15(7). |
APA | Jones, Chris D.,&Friedlingstein, Pierre.(2020).Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(7). |
MLA | Jones, Chris D.,et al."Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.7(2020). |
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