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This study investigates how climate change affects the daily extreme precipitation events that occur in the autumn in Cevennes mountain range (South of France). We use an ensemble of 10 EURO-CORDEX model simulations with two horizontal resolutions (0.11 degrees and 0.44 degrees). Those data sets, after pooling all models together, are fitted by stationary generalized extreme value and empirical distributions for several periods to estimate a climate change signal in the tail of distribution of extreme rainfall. We find that the exceedance probability of a 1-in-100-year event in the historical climate has increased by a factor of 2.50.8 under the current climate. The results show that higher-resolution simulations with bias adjustment provide a robust and confident increase in the intensity and likelihood of occurrence of the events in the current climate in comparison with the historical climate. These changes are in agreement with an observations-based analysis in a previous study.

Plain Language Summary This paper investigates the connection between autumn high precipitation events in the South of France and climate change. From an ensemble of regional climate simulations and observations, we show that the probability of exceeding 100-year precipitation events has more than doubled, due to temperature increase.