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DOI | 10.1029/2018GL078007 |
Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness | |
Aalto, J.1,2; Karjalainen, O.3; Hjort, J.3; Luoto, M.1 | |
2018-05-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:10页码:4889-4898 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland |
英文摘要 | Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 +/- 2.8 x 10(6) km(2). This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback. |
英文关键词 | ensemble modeling permafrost climate change uncertainty Arctic ground thermal regime |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000435262000040 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; PERMAFROST REGION ; THERMAL REGIME ; CLIMATE ; DYNAMICS ; DEGRADATION ; ICE ; UNCERTAINTY ; ACCURACY ; SVALBARD |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/28975 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Helsinki, Dept Geosci & Geog, Helsinki, Finland; 2.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 3.Univ Oulu, Geog Res Unit, Oulu, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Aalto, J.,Karjalainen, O.,Hjort, J.,et al. Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(10):4889-4898. |
APA | Aalto, J.,Karjalainen, O.,Hjort, J.,&Luoto, M..(2018).Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(10),4889-4898. |
MLA | Aalto, J.,et al."Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.10(2018):4889-4898. |
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