Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41893-019-0286-2 |
A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation | |
Fujimori, Shinichiro1,2,3; Hasegawa, Tomoko2,3,4; Krey, Volker3; Riahi, Keywan3,5; Bertram, Christoph6,7; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon6,7; Bosetti, Valentina8,9; Callen, Jessica3; Despres, Jacques10; Doelman, Jonathan11; Drouer, Laurent8; Emmerling, Johannes8; Frank, Stefan3; Fricko, Oliver3; Havlik, Petr3; Humpenoeder, Florian6,7; Koopman, Jason F. L.12; van Meijl, Hans12; Ochi, Yuki13; Popp, Alexander6,7; Schmitz, Andreas10; Takahashi, Kiyoshi2; van Vuuren, Detlef11,14 | |
2019-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE SUSTAINABILITY |
ISSN | 2398-9629 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 2期号:5页码:386-396 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan; Austria; Germany; Italy; Spain; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Holding the global increase in temperature caused by climate change well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, the goal affirmed by the Paris Agreement, is a major societal challenge. Meanwhile, food security is a high-priority area in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, which could potentially be adversely affected by stringent climate mitigation. Here we show the potential negative trade-offs between food security and climate mitigation using a multi-model comparison exercise. We find that carelessly designed climate mitigation policies could increase the number of people at risk of hunger by 160 million in 2050. Avoiding these adverse side effects would entail a cost of about 0.18% of global gross domestic product in 2050. It should be noted that direct impacts of climate change on yields were not assessed and that the direct benefits from mitigation in terms of avoided yield losses could be substantial, further reducing the above cost. Although results vary across models and model implementations, the qualitative implications are robust and call for careful design of climate mitigation policies taking into account agriculture and land prices. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000467789100012 |
WOS关键词 | LAND-USE ; AIR-POLLUTION ; MODEL ; EMISSIONS ; DEMAND ; AGRICULTURE ; BIOENERGY ; SCENARIOS ; TARGET ; FUTURE |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289807 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Kyoto Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kyoto, Japan; 2.NIES, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; 3.IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; 4.Ritsumeikan Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Kusatsu, Japan; 5.Graz Univ Technol, Graz, Austria; 6.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany; 7.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam, Germany; 8.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, EIEE, RFF CMCC, Milan, Italy; 9.Bocconi Univ, Dept Econ, Milan, Italy; 10.European Commiss, JRC, Seville, Spain; 11.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands; 12.Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands; 13.E Konzal, Osaka, Japan; 14.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fujimori, Shinichiro,Hasegawa, Tomoko,Krey, Volker,et al. A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2019,2(5):386-396. |
APA | Fujimori, Shinichiro.,Hasegawa, Tomoko.,Krey, Volker.,Riahi, Keywan.,Bertram, Christoph.,...&van Vuuren, Detlef.(2019).A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2(5),386-396. |
MLA | Fujimori, Shinichiro,et al."A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2.5(2019):386-396. |
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