Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41893-019-0351-x |
Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks | |
Inoue, Hiroyasu1; Todo, Yasuyuki2,3 | |
2019-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
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ISSN | 2398-9629 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 2期号:9页码:841-847 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Japan |
英文摘要 | Social and economic networks can be a channel of negative shocks and thus deteriorate resilience and sustainability in societies. This study focuses on supply chains, or supplier-customer networks of firms and examines how these supply chains enable production losses caused by natural disasters to propagate and persist in regions not directly affected by the disaster. We apply an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly one million firms in Japan to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. We then employ the same model to predict the effect of the Nankai Trough earthquake, a mega earthquake predicted to hit major industrial cities in Japan in the near future. We find that the indirect effects of the disasters on production due to propagation (10.6% of gross domestic product in the case of the Nankai earthquake) are substantially larger than their direct effects (0.5%). Our simulation analyses to compare the actual network with hypothetical networks suggest that these indirect effects are more prominent and persistent when supply chains are characterized by scale-free properties, difficulty in substitution among intermediate products, and complex cycles in networks. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000485771900015 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289891 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Hyogo, Grad Sch Simulat Studies, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan; 2.Waseda Univ, Grad Sch Econ, Tokyo, Japan; 3.Res Inst Econ Trade & Ind, Tokyo, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Inoue, Hiroyasu,Todo, Yasuyuki. Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2019,2(9):841-847. |
APA | Inoue, Hiroyasu,&Todo, Yasuyuki.(2019).Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2(9),841-847. |
MLA | Inoue, Hiroyasu,et al."Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2.9(2019):841-847. |
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