GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1038/s41893-019-0351-x
Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks
Inoue, Hiroyasu1; Todo, Yasuyuki2,3
2019-09-01
发表期刊NATURE SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN2398-9629
出版年2019
卷号2期号:9页码:841-847
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Japan
英文摘要

Social and economic networks can be a channel of negative shocks and thus deteriorate resilience and sustainability in societies. This study focuses on supply chains, or supplier-customer networks of firms and examines how these supply chains enable production losses caused by natural disasters to propagate and persist in regions not directly affected by the disaster. We apply an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly one million firms in Japan to estimate the direct and indirect effects of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. We then employ the same model to predict the effect of the Nankai Trough earthquake, a mega earthquake predicted to hit major industrial cities in Japan in the near future. We find that the indirect effects of the disasters on production due to propagation (10.6% of gross domestic product in the case of the Nankai earthquake) are substantially larger than their direct effects (0.5%). Our simulation analyses to compare the actual network with hypothetical networks suggest that these indirect effects are more prominent and persistent when supply chains are characterized by scale-free properties, difficulty in substitution among intermediate products, and complex cycles in networks.


领域资源环境
收录类别SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000485771900015
WOS关键词MODEL
WOS类目Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/289891
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Hyogo, Grad Sch Simulat Studies, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan;
2.Waseda Univ, Grad Sch Econ, Tokyo, Japan;
3.Res Inst Econ Trade & Ind, Tokyo, Japan
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GB/T 7714
Inoue, Hiroyasu,Todo, Yasuyuki. Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks[J]. NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2019,2(9):841-847.
APA Inoue, Hiroyasu,&Todo, Yasuyuki.(2019).Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks.NATURE SUSTAINABILITY,2(9),841-847.
MLA Inoue, Hiroyasu,et al."Firm-level propagation of shocks through supply-chain networks".NATURE SUSTAINABILITY 2.9(2019):841-847.
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