Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018GL079455 |
Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low-Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean | |
Samanta, Dhrubajyoti1; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.2,3; Goodkin, Nathalie F.1,4,5; Coats, Sloan6; Smerdon, Jason E.7; Zhang, Lei3 | |
2018-10-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
![]() |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 45期号:19页码:10609-10618 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Singapore; USA |
英文摘要 | Coupled general circulation model (GCM) biases in the tropical Pacific are substantial, including a westward extended cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias linked to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Investigation of internal climate variability at centennial timescales using multicentury control integrations of 27 GCMs suggests that a Pacific Centennial Oscillation emerges in GCMs with too strong ENSO variability in the equatorial Pacific, including westward extended SST variability. Using a stochastic model of climate variability (Hasselmann type), we diagnose such centennial SST variance in the western equatorial Pacific. The consistency of a simple stochastic model with complex GCMs suggests that a previously defined Pacific Centennial Oscillation may be driven by biases in high-frequency ENSO forcing in the western equatorial Pacific. A cautious evaluation of long-term trends in the tropical Pacific from GCMs is necessary because significant trends in historical and future simulations are possible consequences of biases in simulated internal variability alone. Plain Language Summary The tropical Pacific Ocean exhibits natural climate variability on a wide range of timescales, some of which are similar to the length of instrumental records (similar to 100 years). Characterizing natural cycles with periods of similar to 100 years is therefore important for detecting and attributing human forced changes. Analysis of climate model simulations shows that a previously defined 100-year cycle in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is the result of mismatches between the models and the real world and therefore may not exist in reality. Our results show that a 100-year periodicity in the tropical Pacific Ocean is a robust feature of models with an erroneously strong El Nino pattern in the western Pacific Ocean including wind fluctuations. We reveal the causes of 100-year cycles in the western Pacific, which relies on the ocean's large thermal capacity to smooth out frequent short-term wind events into slower cycles. Our study highlights the need for cautious interpretations of trends in the tropical Pacific Ocean from climate models due to these possibly spurious 100-year cycles, especially for attributing historical changes and predicting future climate. If these model mismatches can be corrected, it may allow more accurate predictions of El Nino and long-term trends over 21st century. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000448656800065 |
WOS关键词 | GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS ; WESTERN NORTH-AMERICA ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; EL-NINO ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; COLD-TONGUE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29081 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Nanyang Technol Univ, Asian Sch Environm, Singapore, Singapore; 2.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 4.Earth Observ Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; 5.Amer Museum Nat Hist, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, New York, NY 10024 USA; 6.Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Geol & Geophys, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA; 7.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, New York, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti,Karnauskas, Kristopher B.,Goodkin, Nathalie F.,et al. Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low-Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2018,45(19):10609-10618. |
APA | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti,Karnauskas, Kristopher B.,Goodkin, Nathalie F.,Coats, Sloan,Smerdon, Jason E.,&Zhang, Lei.(2018).Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low-Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,45(19),10609-10618. |
MLA | Samanta, Dhrubajyoti,et al."Coupled Model Biases Breed Spurious Low-Frequency Variability in the Tropical Pacific Ocean".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 45.19(2018):10609-10618. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论