资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The STIRPAT approach identifies human impacts on the environment. Most studies find higher ecological elasticities related to population compared to GDP per capita growth. Applying the logarithmic form of the STIRPAT equation, which mitigates the problem of the variables' different variances and units, further allows for appealing economic interpretation and policy conclusions. At the same time, the question of the predictor variables' relative importance cannot be finally answered by this approach. In response, the present paper complements the traditional ecological elasticities by the calculation of standardized β-coefficients (for a sample of 84 countries and the period between 1980 and 2014). Results indicate that GDP per capita rather than population growth matters more for explaining environmental impacts. Admittedly, interpretation of standardized coefficients is not without limitations. First, they are sample-specific and cannot be compared across different studies. Second, a predictor variable might not affect the environment only on its own, but joint impacts could be present. The paper addresses these problems and provides a careful interpretation of and comparison between non-standardized and standardized β-coefficients. Overall, there is good reason to assume that environmental impacts can be reduced more readily by a policy giving priority to economic rather than population growth.