Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-16-0147.1 |
Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations | |
Alexander, Romeo1; Zhao, Zhizhen1,2; Szekely, Eniko1; Giannakis, Dimitrios1 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 74期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | This paper presents the results of forecasting the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) through the use of satellite-obtained global brightness temperature data with a recently developed nonparametric empirical method. This new method, referred to as kernel analog forecasting, adopts specific indices extracted using the technique of nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis as baseline definitions of the intraseasonal oscillations of interest, which are then extended into forecasts through an iterated weighted averaging scheme that exploits the predictability inherent to those indices. The pattern correlation of the forecasts produced in this manner remains above 0.6 for 50 days for both the MJO and BSISO when 23 yr of training data are used and 37 days for the MJO when 9 yr of data are used. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000399333700020 |
WOS关键词 | MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ; PREDICTION SKILL ; RANGE FORECASTS ; TOGA COARE ; MODEL ; CIRCULATION ; MJO ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; REDUCTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29346 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.NYU, Courant Inst Math Sci, 251 Mercer St, New York, NY 10003 USA; 2.Univ Illinois, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Urbana, IL USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alexander, Romeo,Zhao, Zhizhen,Szekely, Eniko,et al. Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,74(4). |
APA | Alexander, Romeo,Zhao, Zhizhen,Szekely, Eniko,&Giannakis, Dimitrios.(2017).Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,74(4). |
MLA | Alexander, Romeo,et al."Kernel Analog Forecasting of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74.4(2017). |
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