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DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0137.1 |
Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments | |
Nystrom, Robert G.1,2; Zhang, Fuqing1,2; Munsell, Erin B.3,4; Braun, Scott A.3; Sippel, Jason A.5; Weng, Yonghui1,2,6; Emanuel, Kerry7 | |
2018-02-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES |
ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 75期号:2页码:401-424 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Real-time ensemble forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University (PSU) WRF EnKF system (APSU) for Hurricane Joaquin (2015) are examined in this study. The ensemble forecasts, from early in Joaquin's life cycle, displayed large track spread, with nearly half of the ensemble members tracking Joaquin toward the U.S. East Coast and the other half tracking Joaquin out to sea. The ensemble forecasts also displayed large intensity spread, with many of the members developing into major hurricanes and other ensemble members not intensifying at all. Initial condition differences from the regions greater than (less than) 300 km were isolated by effectively removing initial condition differences in desired regions through relaxing each ensemble member to GFS (APSU) initial conditions. The regions of initial condition errors contributing to the track spread were examined, and the dominant source of track errors arose from the region greater than 300 km from the tropical cyclone center. Further examination of the track divergence revealed that the region between 600 and 900 km from the initial position of Joaquin was found to be the largest source of initial condition errors that contributed to this divergence. Small differences in the low-level steering flow, originating from perturbations between 600 and 900 km from the initial position, appear to have resulted in the bifurcation of the forecast tracks of Joaquin. The initial condition errors north of the initial position of Joaquin were also shown to contribute most significantly to the track divergence. The region inside of 300 km, specifically, the initial intensity of Joaquin, was the dominant source of initial condition errors contributing to the intensity spread. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425753300002 |
WOS关键词 | TROPICAL CYCLONE MOTION ; PART I ; RAPID INTENSIFICATION ; BAROTROPIC MODEL ; INTENSITY ; ERRORS ; PERTURBATIONS ; ASSIMILATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; FORECASTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29362 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA; 4.Univ Space Res Assoc, Columbia, MD USA; 5.NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Hurricane Res Div, Miami, FL 33149 USA; 6.IM Syst Grp, Rockville, MD USA; 7.MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Nystrom, Robert G.,Zhang, Fuqing,Munsell, Erin B.,et al. Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2018,75(2):401-424. |
APA | Nystrom, Robert G..,Zhang, Fuqing.,Munsell, Erin B..,Braun, Scott A..,Sippel, Jason A..,...&Emanuel, Kerry.(2018).Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,75(2),401-424. |
MLA | Nystrom, Robert G.,et al."Predictability and Dynamics of Hurricane Joaquin (2015) Explored through Convection-Permitting Ensemble Sensitivity Experiments".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 75.2(2018):401-424. |
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