Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-1985-2019 |
Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty | |
Tuononen, Minttu1; 39;Connor, Ewan J.2 | |
2019-02-14 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:3页码:1985-2000 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Finland; England |
英文摘要 | The presence of clouds and their characteristics have a strong impact on the radiative balance of the Earth and on the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Many applications require accurate forecasts of surface radiation on weather timescales, for example solar energy and UV radiation forecasts. Here we investigate how operational forecasts of low and mid-level clouds affect the accuracy of solar radiation forecasts. A total of 4 years of cloud and solar radiation observations from one site in Helsinki, Finland, are analysed. Cloud observations are obtained from a ceilometer and therefore we first develop algorithms to reliably detect cloud base, precipitation, and fog. These new algorithms are widely applicable for both operational use and research, such as in-cloud icing detection for the wind energy industry and for aviation. The cloud and radiation observations are compared to forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) run operationally and developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We develop methods to evaluate the skill of the cloud and radiation forecasts. These methods can potentially be extended to hundreds of sites globally. Over Helsinki, the measured global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is strongly influenced by its northerly location and the annual variation in cloudiness. Solar radiation forecast error is therefore larger in summer than in winter, but the relative error in the solar radiation forecast is more or less constant throughout the year. The mean overall bias in the GHI forecast is positive (8 W m(-2)). The observed and forecast distributions in cloud cover, at the spatial scales we are considering, are strongly skewed towards clear-sky and overcast situations. Cloud cover forecasts show more skill in winter when the cloud cover is predominantly overcast; in summer there are more clear-sky and broken cloud situations. A negative bias was found in forecast GHI for correctly forecast clear-sky cases and a positive bias in correctly forecast overcast cases. Temporal averaging improved the cloud cover forecast and hence decreased the solar radiation forecast error. The positive bias seen in overcast situations occurs when the model cloud has low values of liquid water path (LWP). We attribute this bias to the model having LWP values that are too low or the model optical properties for clouds with low LWP being incorrect. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000458626000001 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE RADIATION ; CLOUD ; REANALYSES ; RETRIEVAL ; SATELLITE ; ALGORITHM ; PROFILES ; MODELS ; NWP |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29510 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Finnish Meteorol Inst, Helsinki, Finland; 2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England; 3.Univ Helsinki, Fac Sci, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Phys, Helsinki, Finland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tuononen, Minttu,39;Connor, Ewan J.. Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(3):1985-2000. |
APA | Tuononen, Minttu,&39;Connor, Ewan J..(2019).Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(3),1985-2000. |
MLA | Tuononen, Minttu,et al."Evaluating solar radiation forecast uncertainty".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.3(2019):1985-2000. |
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