资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Many parts of East Asia, including Japan, experienced extremely warm conditions during the 2019–2020 winter. These were successfully predicted in October of 2019 by the 108‐member ensemble seasonal prediction system based on the SINTEX‐F climate model. By analyzing co‐variability of inter‐member anomalies defined as deviations from the ensemble mean, we have found that the active convection over the western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole caused these unusual conditions over East Asia by generating the meander of the subtropical jet.