资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

South Asian monsoon low pressure systems, referred to as synoptic-scale monsoonal disturbances (SMDs), are convectively coupled cyclonic disturbances that are responsible for up to half of the total monsoon rainfall. In spite of their importance, the mechanisms that lead to the growth of these systems have remained elusive. It has long been thought that SMDs grow because of a variant of baroclinic instability that includes the effects of convection. Recent work, however, has shown that this framework is inconsistent with the observed structure and dynamics of SMDs. Here, we present an alternative framework that may explain the growth of SMDs and may also be applicable to other modes of tropical variability. Moisture is prognostic and is coupled to precipitation through a simplified Betts-Miller scheme. Interactions between moisture and potential vorticity (PV) in the presence of a moist static energy gradient can be understood in terms of a "gross'' PV (q(G)) equation. The q(G) summarizes the dynamics of SMDs and reveals the relative role that moist and dry dynamics play in these disturbances, which is largely determined by the gross moist stability. Linear solutions to the coupled PV and moisture equations reveal Rossby-like modes that grow because of a moisture vortex instability. Meridional temperature and moisture advection to the west of the PV maximum moisten and destabilize the column, which results in enhanced convection and SMD intensification through vortex stretching. This instability occurs only if the moistening is in the direction of propagation of the SMD and is strongest at the synoptic scale.