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DOI | 10.1175/JAS-D-17-0094.1 |
Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes | |
Wang, Zhuo1; Li, Weiwei1; Peng, Melinda S.2; Jiang, Xianan3; McTaggart-Cowan, Ron4; Davis, Christopher A.5 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
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ISSN | 0022-4928 |
EISSN | 1520-0469 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 75期号:1页码:361-378 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Canada |
英文摘要 | Practical predictability of tropical cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic is evaluated in different synoptic flow regimes using the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecasts with forecast lead time up to two weeks. Synoptic flow regimes are represented by tropical cyclogenesis pathways defined in a previous study based on the low-level baroclinicity and upper-level forcing of the genesis environmental state, including nonbaroclinic, low-level baroclinic, trough-induced, weak tropical transition (TT), and strong TT pathways. It is found that the strong TT and weak TT pathways have lower predictability than the other pathways, linked to the lower predictability of vertical wind shear and midlevel humidity in the genesis vicinity of a developing TT storm. Further analysis suggests that stronger extratropical influences contribute to lower genesis predictability. It is also shown that the regional and seasonal variations of the genesis predictive skill in the GEFS can be largely explained by the relative frequency of occurrence of each pathway and the predictability differences among pathways. Predictability of tropical cyclogenesis is further discussed using the concept of the genesis potential index. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425750200020 |
WOS关键词 | WAVE CRITICAL LAYER ; CYCLONE GENESIS FORECASTS ; GLOBAL NUMERICAL-MODELS ; PART I ; HURRICANE ACTIVITY ; FIELD EXPERIMENT ; EASTERLY WAVES ; DISTURBANCES ; CLIMATOLOGY ; TRANSITION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29587 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; 2.Naval Res Lab, Marine Meteorol Div, Monterey, CA USA; 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Joint Inst Reg Earth Syst Sci & Engn, Los Angeles, CA USA; 4.Environm & Climate Change Canada, Numer Weather Predict Res Sect, Dorval, PQ, Canada; 5.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Zhuo,Li, Weiwei,Peng, Melinda S.,et al. Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2018,75(1):361-378. |
APA | Wang, Zhuo,Li, Weiwei,Peng, Melinda S.,Jiang, Xianan,McTaggart-Cowan, Ron,&Davis, Christopher A..(2018).Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,75(1),361-378. |
MLA | Wang, Zhuo,et al."Predictive Skill and Predictability of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis in Different Synoptic Flow Regimes".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 75.1(2018):361-378. |
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