The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill

doi:10.1175/JAS-D-17-0008.1

GSTDTAP > 地球科学

DOI	10.1175/JAS-D-17-0008.1
	The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill
	Emanuel, Kerry 1; Zhang, Fuqing 2,3
	2017-07-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
ISSN	0022-4928
EISSN	1520-0469
出版年	2017
卷号	74 期号:7
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
英文摘要	Errors in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are dominated by initial-condition errors out to at least a few days. Initialization errors are usually thought of in terms of position and intensity, but here it is shown that growth of intensity error is at least as sensitive to the specification of inner-core moisture as to that of the wind field. Implications of this finding for tropical cyclone observational strategies and for overall predictability of storm intensity are discussed.
领域	地球科学
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000405556700012
WOS关键词	RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE EQUILIBRIUM ; INTENSITY ; ATMOSPHERE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29668
专题	地球科学
作者单位	1.MIT, Lorenz Ctr, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.Penn State Univ, Ctr Adv Data Assimilat & Predictabil Tech, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Emanuel, Kerry,Zhang, Fuqing. The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,74(7).
APA	Emanuel, Kerry,&Zhang, Fuqing.(2017).The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill.JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,74(7).
MLA	Emanuel, Kerry,et al."The Role of Inner-Core Moisture in Tropical Cyclone Predictability and Practical Forecast Skill".JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 74.7(2017).