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A new study by NCCOS and NOAA Fisheries scientists on spatial modelling for the Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed coral Acropora palmata (elkhorn coral) in the U.S. Virgin Islands, combines spatial modeling and population demographics to help guide conservation efforts in light of climate change.

For species vulnerable to climate change, much attention has focused on predicting the future range of occurrence. Species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict spatial dynamics. However, predicted range changes provide little information about the potential impacts on spatial‐temporal population structure. In the modeling study, the scientists developed and applied an SDM approach incorporating population demography of the elkhorn coral Acropora palmata. The modelling approach integrates information from multiple data sources using a statistical method called Bayesian inference. Additionally, climate change scenarios were predicted by the study for potential future range and spatial population structures.

Elkhorn coral (Acropora palmata). Credit Lee Richter, NPS.

The modelling predicts that, under scenarios of elevated sea surface temperature and significant wave height, A. palmata will occur at only a small proportion of its potential habitat (water depth plus or minus 20 m), and population structures of colonies will shift from larger to smaller size classes. For A. palmata, the restricted geographic range and smaller colony sizes, as predicted by the model, would limit future population success. The model provides critical information for conservation or restoration efforts for elkhorn coral in the context of climate change.

The model was developed by Dr. Yi-Hsiu Chen when she was a National Research Council postdoctoral fellow at the NCCOS Beaufort North Carolina Laboratory. The work is part of the NCCOS project on spatial predictive modeling of threatened ESA corals in the U.S. Atlantic and Caribbean and was published in the open access journal Diversity and Distributions.

Citation: Chen, Yi‐Hsiu, Kyle W. Shertzer and T. Shay Viehman. 2020. Spatio‐temporal dynamics of the threatened elkhorn coral Acropora palmata: Implications for conservation. Diversity and Distributions.  https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13143