资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

This study investigates relationships between storm-scale properties and the electrification and lightning of two simulations of an intensifying idealized tropical cyclone (TC) using the cloud-resolving Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation (COMMAS). To produce an intensifying storm, an initial weak TC is subjected to a linear increase in sea surface temperature.

As the TC intensifies, lightning flash rates increase in both the inner core (r <= 100 km) and outer region (100, r <= 300 km). As time progresses, lightning in the outer region gradually decreases, while the inner-core lightning remains relatively steady. Bootstrapped correlation statistics using 1000 random samples between the pressure trace and time series of lightning rates shows a statistically significant negative correlation between inner-core lightning and TC intensification. Lightning rates in the outer bands were found to lag minimum surface pressure by 12 h.

The increases in lightning in both the inner core and outer region coincided well with increases in 0.5 g kg(-1) graupel and 5ms(-1) updraft volumes in each respective region. Correlation statistics with selected kinematic and microphysical variables known to be associated with lightning in thunderstorms, such as the ice water path, integrated updraft volume, and graupel volume, revealed that their increase in the inner core indicated an ongoing deepening, similar to the lightning. Trends in these proxy variables in the outer bands were also found to lag TC intensification by 12 h.

Overall, the best linear relationships with lightning in either the inner core or the outer region were obtained with the 0.5 g kg(-1) graupel volume and total graupel mass.