GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-018-2318-8
Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways
Rohat, Guillaume1,2; Flacke, Johannes2; Dao, Hy1; van Maarseveen, Martin2
2018-12-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号151页码:619-636
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Switzerland; Netherlands
英文摘要

More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global development trends, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), have the potential to enhance the integration of future socioeconomic conditionsin the form of socioeconomic scenarioswithin assessments of future climate risks. Being global development pathways, the SSPs lack regional and sectoral details. To increase their suitability in sectoral and/or regional studies and their relevance for local stakeholders, the SSPs have to be extended. We propose here a new method to extend the SSPs that makes use of existing scenario studies, the (re)use of which has been underestimated so far. Our approach lies in a systematic matching of multiple scenario sets that facilitates enrichment of the global SSPs with regional and sectoral information, in terms of both storylines and quantitative projections. We apply this method to develop extended SSPs of human vulnerability in Europe and to quantify them for a number of key indicators at the sub-national level up to 2050, based on the co-use of the matched scenarios' quantitative outputs. Results show that such a method leads to internally consistent extended SSPs with detailed and highly quantified narratives that are tightly linked to global contexts. This method also provides multiple entry points where the relevance of scenarios to local stakeholders can be tested and strengthened. The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations' vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000452480700017
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; POPULATION PROJECTIONS ; VULNERABILITY ; IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; FUTURE ; FRAMEWORK ; 21ST-CENTURY ; CHALLENGES ; SCALES
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29883
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland;
2.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, Enschede, Netherlands
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GB/T 7714
Rohat, Guillaume,Flacke, Johannes,Dao, Hy,et al. Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:619-636.
APA Rohat, Guillaume,Flacke, Johannes,Dao, Hy,&van Maarseveen, Martin.(2018).Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,619-636.
MLA Rohat, Guillaume,et al."Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):619-636.
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