Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2318-8 |
Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways | |
Rohat, Guillaume1,2; Flacke, Johannes2; Dao, Hy1; van Maarseveen, Martin2 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151页码:619-636 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Switzerland; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | More often than not, assessments of future climate risks are based on future climatic conditions superimposed on current socioeconomic conditions only. The new IPCC-guided alternative global development trends, the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), have the potential to enhance the integration of future socioeconomic conditionsin the form of socioeconomic scenarioswithin assessments of future climate risks. Being global development pathways, the SSPs lack regional and sectoral details. To increase their suitability in sectoral and/or regional studies and their relevance for local stakeholders, the SSPs have to be extended. We propose here a new method to extend the SSPs that makes use of existing scenario studies, the (re)use of which has been underestimated so far. Our approach lies in a systematic matching of multiple scenario sets that facilitates enrichment of the global SSPs with regional and sectoral information, in terms of both storylines and quantitative projections. We apply this method to develop extended SSPs of human vulnerability in Europe and to quantify them for a number of key indicators at the sub-national level up to 2050, based on the co-use of the matched scenarios' quantitative outputs. Results show that such a method leads to internally consistent extended SSPs with detailed and highly quantified narratives that are tightly linked to global contexts. This method also provides multiple entry points where the relevance of scenarios to local stakeholders can be tested and strengthened. The extended SSPs can be readily employed to explore future populations' vulnerability to climate hazards under varying levels of socioeconomic development. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452480700017 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; POPULATION PROJECTIONS ; VULNERABILITY ; IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; FUTURE ; FRAMEWORK ; 21ST-CENTURY ; CHALLENGES ; SCALES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29883 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Geneva, Inst Environm Sci, Geneva, Switzerland; 2.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, Enschede, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rohat, Guillaume,Flacke, Johannes,Dao, Hy,et al. Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:619-636. |
APA | Rohat, Guillaume,Flacke, Johannes,Dao, Hy,&van Maarseveen, Martin.(2018).Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,619-636. |
MLA | Rohat, Guillaume,et al."Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):619-636. |
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