Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2150-1 |
An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China | |
Yue, Yaojie1,2; Wang, Lin2; Li, Jian2,3; Zhu, A-xing4,5,6 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:539-553 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | There is considerable research interest in future agro-drought risk assessment, since the increasing severity of climate change-related hazards poses a great threat to global food security. Wheat is the most important staple crop in the world, and China's wheat production has long been impacted by drought. The frequency, intensity, and duration of droughts may increase due to climate change and stressing the need for robust assessment methods for drought risk, as well as adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper investigates a method for assessing future wheat drought risk using climate scenarios and a crop model. We illustrate the utility of such an approach by assessing the risk of wheat drought under climate change scenarios in China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model. Results show that the risk level of wheat drought is highest under scenario RCP8.5, followed by RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP2.6, in descending order. If current climate change trends continue, wheat drought risk in China will be at risk levels between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first century. The wheat drought risk assessment shows a "low-risk, high-risk, low-risk" spatial pattern starting in the spring wheat-planting regions in northern China and progressing to the winter wheat-planting regions in southern China. Significant differences were observed across regions, but in all RCP scenarios, the relative high-risk zones are the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region and the North Winter Wheat Region. In addition, wheat drought risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in China are proposed. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428427200012 |
WOS关键词 | WINTER-WHEAT ; CROP YIELD ; ADAPTATION ; IMPACTS ; VULNERABILITY ; PROBABILITY ; AFRICA |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29889 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 4.Nanjing Normal Univ, Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 5.Nanjing Normal Univ, Sch Geog, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yue, Yaojie,Wang, Lin,Li, Jian,et al. An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:539-553. |
APA | Yue, Yaojie,Wang, Lin,Li, Jian,&Zhu, A-xing.(2018).An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,539-553. |
MLA | Yue, Yaojie,et al."An EPIC model-based wheat drought risk assessment using new climate scenarios in China".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):539-553. |
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