资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

In an attempt to estimate accurate local sea level change, "sea level trend" modes are identified and separated from natural variability via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis applied to both the tide gauge data (1965-2013) and the reconstruction data (1950-2010) around the Korean Peninsula. For the tide gauge data, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is also used to estimate sea level trend to understand an uncertainty from different analysis tools. The three trend models-linear, quadratic, and exponential-are fitted to the amplitude time series of the trend mode so that future projection of sea level can be made. Based on a quadratic model, the rate of local sea level rise (SLR) is expected to be 4.63 +/- 1.1 mm year(-1) during 2010-2060. The estimates of "local" sea level trend vary up to similar to 30%. It should be noted that, although the three trend models estimate similar sea level trends during the observational period, the projected sea level trend and subsequent SLR differ significantly from one model to another and between the tide gauge data and the reconstruction data; this results in a substantial uncertainty in the future SLR around the Korean Peninsula.