Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2221-3 |
Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach | |
Belyaeva, Maria1; Bokusheva, Raushan2 | |
2018-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149期号:2页码:205-217 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Using recent advances in statistical crop yield modelling and a unique dataset consisting of yield time series for Russian regions over the period from 1955 to 2012, the study investigates the potential impact of climate change (CC) on the productivity of the three most important grains. Holding current grain growing areas fixed, the aggregate productivity of the three grains is predicted to decrease by 6.7% in 2046-2065 and increase by 2.6% in 2081-2100 compared to 1971-2000 under the most optimistic representative emission concentration pathway (RCP). Based on the projections for the three other RCPs, the aggregate productivity of the three studied crops is assessed to decrease by 18.0, 7.9 and 26.0% in the medium term and by 31.2, 25.9 and 55.4% by the end of the century. Our results indicate that CC might have a positive effect on winter wheat, spring wheat and spring barley productivity in a number of regions in the Northern and Siberian parts of Russia. However, due to the highly damaging CC impact on grain production in the most productive regions located in the South of the country, the overall impact tends to be negative. Therefore, a shift of agricultural production to the Northern regions of the country could reduce the negative impact of CC on grain production only to a limited extent. More vigorous adaptation measures are required to maintain current grain production volumes in Russia under CC. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000439940200007 |
WOS关键词 | AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ; RANDOM FLUCTUATIONS ; ECONOMIC-IMPACTS ; CROP YIELD ; MODELS ; TEMPERATURES ; SENSITIVITY ; CO2 |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29950 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, Theodor Lieser Str 2, D-06120 Halle, Saale, Germany; 2.ZHAW Zurich Univ Appl Sci, Inst Nat Resource Sci, Agr & Resource Econ, CH-8820 Wadenswil, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Belyaeva, Maria,Bokusheva, Raushan. Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149(2):205-217. |
APA | Belyaeva, Maria,&Bokusheva, Raushan.(2018).Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149(2),205-217. |
MLA | Belyaeva, Maria,et al."Will climate change benefit or hurt Russian grain production? A statistical evidence from a panel approach".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149.2(2018):205-217. |
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