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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-016-1742-x |
Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes | |
Zhao, Tianbao1; Dai, Aiguo2,3 | |
2017-10-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | While most models project large increases in agricultural drought frequency and severity in the 21st century, significant uncertainties exist in these projections. Here, we compare the model-simulated changes with observation-based estimates since 1900 and examine model projections from both the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with the Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm) as a measure of agricultural drought. Results show that estimated long-term changes in global and hemispheric drought areas from 1900 to 2014 are consistent with the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-simulated response to historical greenhouse gases and other external forcing, with the short-term variations within the model spread of internal variability, despite that regional changes are still dominated by internal variability. Both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models project continued increases (by 50-200 % in a relative sense) in the 21st century in global agricultural drought frequency and area even under low-moderate emissions scenarios, resulting from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the sc_PDSI_pm. This flattening is especially pronounced over the Northern Hemisphere land, leading to increased drought frequency even over areas with increasing sc_PDSI_pm. Large differences exist in the CMIP3 and CMIP5 model-projected precipitation and drought changes over the Sahel and northern Australia due to uncertainties in simulating the African Inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the subsidence zone over northern Australia, while the wetting trend over East Africa reflects a robust response of the Indian Ocean ITCZ seen in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. While warming-induced PET increases over all latitudes and precipitation decreases over subtropical land are responsible for mean sc_PDSI_pm decreases, the exact cause of its PDF flattening needs further investigation. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000412660800012 |
WOS关键词 | GLOBAL DROUGHT ; WET SPELLS ; CLIMATE ; 21ST-CENTURY ; MOISTURE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29961 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, IAP, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res East Asia, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Tianbao,Dai, Aiguo. Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(3). |
APA | Zhao, Tianbao,&Dai, Aiguo.(2017).Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(3). |
MLA | Zhao, Tianbao,et al."Uncertainties in historical changes and future projections of drought. Part II: model-simulated historical and future drought changes".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.3(2017). |
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