Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2259-2 |
Incipient road to extinction of a keystone herbivore in south-eastern Europe: Harting's vole (Microtus hartingi) under climate change | |
Krystufek, Boris1; Zorenko, Tanya2; Bontzorlos, Vasileios3; Mahmoudi, Ahmad4; Atanasov, Nasko5; Ivajnsic, Danijel6 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 149页码:443-456 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Slovenia; Latvia; Greece; Iran; Bulgaria |
英文摘要 | Climate forcing, which is blamed for the decennial decline in the dynamics of vole populations in Central and Northern Europe, may have similar effects in southern (Mediterranean) Europe, even more so since the region is especially vulnerable to global change. In the absence of population monitoring, we investigated the temporal development and geospatial pattern of the habitat of Harting's vole (Microtus hartingi) in southeast Europe (SEE) by relying on data regarding its presence, the most recent freely available geospatial datasets and state-of-the-art presence-only Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques. Results indicate that (1) the potential habitat of Harting's vole was perhaps stable over the last 6000 years - modelling predictions are in conjunction with scarce fossil evidence, which points to repeated colonisations from Asia Minor punctuated by extinctions in SEE; (2) fragmentation of the potential habitat in SEE, which may have already begun in the Last Glacial Maximum, and will most likely continue in the near future; and (3) Harting's vole could disappear by the end of the century if more pessimistic climate change scenarios become reality. While climate change is suppressing the population dynamics of the keystone grass-eating voles from temperate and boreal ecosystems, it is about to annihilate their Mediterranean counterpart. This will result in a far more severe impact on community restructuring in the Mediterranean ecosystems than elsewhere. Long-term population monitoring is desperately needed in SEE to hone the ability to more accurately predict the impacts of climate change. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000443398900012 |
WOS关键词 | SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; COMMUNITIES ; PERFORMANCE ; IMPROVE ; MODELS ; MAXENT ; SIZE ; BIAS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29973 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Slovenian Museum Nat Hist, Presernova 20, SI-1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia; 2.Univ Latvia, Krovald Bulv 4, LV-1586 Riga, Latvia; 3.Inst Bioecon & Agri Technol iBO, Ctr Res & Technol Hellas CERTH, Dimarhou Georgiadi Nikolaou 118, Volos 38333, Greece; 4.Pasteur Inst Iran, Res Ctr Emerging & Reemerging Infect Dis, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Tehran, Iran; 5.Bulgarian Acad Sci, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Res, Tsar Osvboditel Blvd 1, Sofia 1000, Bulgaria; 6.Univ Maribor, Fac Nat Sci & Math, Koroska 160, Maribor 2000, Slovenia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Krystufek, Boris,Zorenko, Tanya,Bontzorlos, Vasileios,et al. Incipient road to extinction of a keystone herbivore in south-eastern Europe: Harting's vole (Microtus hartingi) under climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,149:443-456. |
APA | Krystufek, Boris,Zorenko, Tanya,Bontzorlos, Vasileios,Mahmoudi, Ahmad,Atanasov, Nasko,&Ivajnsic, Danijel.(2018).Incipient road to extinction of a keystone herbivore in south-eastern Europe: Harting's vole (Microtus hartingi) under climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,149,443-456. |
MLA | Krystufek, Boris,et al."Incipient road to extinction of a keystone herbivore in south-eastern Europe: Harting's vole (Microtus hartingi) under climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 149(2018):443-456. |
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