Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2098-6 |
Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada | |
Shrestha, Rajesh R.1,2; Cannon, Alex J.3; Schnorbus, Markus A.2; Zwiers, Francis W.2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 145 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | We describe an efficient and flexible statistical modeling framework for projecting nonstationary streamflow extremes for the Fraser River basin in Canada, which is dominated by nival flow regime. The framework is based on an extreme value analysis technique that allows for nonstationarity in annual extreme streamflow by relating it to antecedent winter and spring precipitation and temperature. We used a representative suite of existing Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model simulations driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) climate simulations to train and evaluate a nonlinear and nonstationary extreme value model of annual extreme streamflow. The model was subsequently used to project changes under CMIP5-based climate change scenarios. Using this combination of process-based and statistical modeling, we project that the moderate (e.g., 2-20-year return period) extreme streamflow events will decrease in intensity. In contrast, projections of high intensity events (e.g., 100-200-year return period), which reflect complex interactions between temperature and precipitation changes, are inconclusive. The results provide a basis for developing a general understanding of the future streamflow extremes changes in nival basins and through careful consideration and adoption of appropriate covariates, the methodology could be employed for basins spanning a range of hydro-climatological regimes. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000417060100003 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FLOOD RISK ; MODEL ; WATER ; PRECIPITATION ; CMIP5 ; STATIONARITY ; SURFACE |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29977 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Victoria, Watershed Hydrol & Ecol Res Div, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada; 2.Univ Victoria, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada; 3.Univ Victoria, Div Climate Res, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shrestha, Rajesh R.,Cannon, Alex J.,Schnorbus, Markus A.,et al. Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,145. |
APA | Shrestha, Rajesh R.,Cannon, Alex J.,Schnorbus, Markus A.,&Zwiers, Francis W..(2017).Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada.CLIMATIC CHANGE,145. |
MLA | Shrestha, Rajesh R.,et al."Projecting future nonstationary extreme streamflow for the Fraser River, Canada".CLIMATIC CHANGE 145(2017). |
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