GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-016-1829-4
Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins
Hattermann, F. F.1; Krysanova, V.1; Gosling, S. N.2; Dankers, R.3; Daggupati, P.4; Donnelly, C.5; Floerke, M.6; Huang, S.1; Motovilov, Y.7; Buda, S.8; Yang, T.9,10; Mueller, C.1; Leng, G.11; Tang, Q.12; Portmann, F. T.13; Hagemann, S.14; Gerten, D.1,15; Wada, Y.16,17,18,21; Masaki, Y.19; Alemayehu, T.20; Satoh, Y.21; Samaniego, L.22
2017-04-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2017
卷号141期号:3
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Germany; England; Canada; Sweden; Russia; Peoples R China; USA; Netherlands; Japan; Belgium; Austria
英文摘要

Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000396824300014
WOS关键词WATER ; MANAGEMENT ; ENSEMBLE ; WETLANDS ; RUNOFF ; SWIM
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29989
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany;
2.Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England;
3.Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England;
4.Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada;
5.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, S-60176 Norrkoping, Sweden;
6.Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34125 Kassel, Germany;
7.Russian Acad Sci, Inst Water Problems, Moscow, Russia;
8.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China;
9.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing, Peoples R China;
10.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Beijing, Peoples R China;
11.Joint Global Change Res Inst, Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA;
12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China;
13.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Phys Geog, Frankfurt, Germany;
14.Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany;
15.Humboldt Univ, Dept Geog, D-10099 Berlin, Germany;
16.NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA;
17.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA;
18.Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands;
19.Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan;
20.Vrije Univ Brussel, Brussels, Belgium;
21.Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria;
22.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Leipzig, Germany
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Hattermann, F. F.,Krysanova, V.,Gosling, S. N.,et al. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(3).
APA Hattermann, F. F..,Krysanova, V..,Gosling, S. N..,Dankers, R..,Daggupati, P..,...&Samaniego, L..(2017).Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(3).
MLA Hattermann, F. F.,et al."Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.3(2017).
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