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DOI10.1007/s10584-017-2072-3
Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China
Liu, Luliu1; Xu, Hongmei1; Wang, Yong2; Jiang, Tong1,3
2017-11-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2017
卷号145
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Peoples R China
英文摘要

In the discussion of climate impacts, 1.5 and 2 A degrees C have become iconic values. This study examines the impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability, runoff seasonality, and extreme monthly and daily runoff in two catchments, using the semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska ByrAns Vattenbalansavdelning-D, based on a combination of five global climate models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Subsequently, quantitative assessments were made for projection uncertainties from GCMs and RCPs. The two catchments are the Yiluo River catchment (YLC) in northern China and the Beijiang River catchment (BJC) in southern China. The results indicate wetter flood seasons for YLC and warmer mean annual temperatures, drier springs, and more severe floods over long return periods (25 and 50 years) for both catchments. The change magnitude of most indicators is expected to be larger in YLC than in BJC. Mean annual temperatures in both catchments are expected to have smaller changes under the 1.5 A degrees C scenario than under the 2.0 A degrees C scenario. However, the change magnitude of the other hydrological variables is projected to be approximately equivalent for both catchments under both scenarios. Uncertainties of projected impacts from GCMs are generally larger than those from RCP scenarios, for both catchments and warming scenarios, with the exception of mean annual temperature of BJC. These findings indicate that effective measures are required to address increasing annual temperatures, more severe flood events (25- and 50-year return periods), and drier spring seasons in both catchments and wetter flood seasons in YLC.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000415031800011
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; FLOOD FREQUENCY ; BASIN ; UNCERTAINTY ; DISCHARGE ; RUNOFF
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29996
专题气候变化
作者单位1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
2.Chongqing Climate Ctr, Chongqing 401147, Peoples R China;
3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci Technol, Sch Geog & Remote Sensing, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Liu, Luliu,Xu, Hongmei,Wang, Yong,et al. Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,145.
APA Liu, Luliu,Xu, Hongmei,Wang, Yong,&Jiang, Tong.(2017).Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China.CLIMATIC CHANGE,145.
MLA Liu, Luliu,et al."Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China".CLIMATIC CHANGE 145(2017).
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