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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2072-3 |
Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China | |
Liu, Luliu1; Xu, Hongmei1; Wang, Yong2; Jiang, Tong1,3 | |
2017-11-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 145 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | In the discussion of climate impacts, 1.5 and 2 A degrees C have become iconic values. This study examines the impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability, runoff seasonality, and extreme monthly and daily runoff in two catchments, using the semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska ByrAns Vattenbalansavdelning-D, based on a combination of five global climate models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Subsequently, quantitative assessments were made for projection uncertainties from GCMs and RCPs. The two catchments are the Yiluo River catchment (YLC) in northern China and the Beijiang River catchment (BJC) in southern China. The results indicate wetter flood seasons for YLC and warmer mean annual temperatures, drier springs, and more severe floods over long return periods (25 and 50 years) for both catchments. The change magnitude of most indicators is expected to be larger in YLC than in BJC. Mean annual temperatures in both catchments are expected to have smaller changes under the 1.5 A degrees C scenario than under the 2.0 A degrees C scenario. However, the change magnitude of the other hydrological variables is projected to be approximately equivalent for both catchments under both scenarios. Uncertainties of projected impacts from GCMs are generally larger than those from RCP scenarios, for both catchments and warming scenarios, with the exception of mean annual temperature of BJC. These findings indicate that effective measures are required to address increasing annual temperatures, more severe flood events (25- and 50-year return periods), and drier spring seasons in both catchments and wetter flood seasons in YLC. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000415031800011 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; FLOOD FREQUENCY ; BASIN ; UNCERTAINTY ; DISCHARGE ; RUNOFF |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/29996 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Chongqing Climate Ctr, Chongqing 401147, Peoples R China; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci Technol, Sch Geog & Remote Sensing, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Luliu,Xu, Hongmei,Wang, Yong,et al. Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,145. |
APA | Liu, Luliu,Xu, Hongmei,Wang, Yong,&Jiang, Tong.(2017).Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China.CLIMATIC CHANGE,145. |
MLA | Liu, Luliu,et al."Impacts of 1.5 and 2 A degrees C global warming on water availability and extreme hydrological events in Yiluo and Beijiang River catchments in China".CLIMATIC CHANGE 145(2017). |
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