GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-016-1881-0
To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?
Dunn, Miriam1; Rounsevell, Mark D.1; Carlsen, Henrik2; Dzebo, Adis2; Lourenco, Tiago Capela3; Hagg, Joseph4
2017-03-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2017
卷号141期号:2
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家Scotland; Sweden; Portugal
英文摘要

We explore the individual and institutional conditions and the climate information used to underpin decision-making for adaptation to high-end climate change (HECC) scenarios in a land resource management context. HECC refers to extreme projections with global annual temperature increases of over 4 A degrees C. We analyse whether HECC scenarios are used in the adaptation decision-making of stakeholders who will tackle the potential problem. We also explore whether the adaptation actions being considered are pertinent only to future climate change or whether other drivers and information types are used in decision-making (including non-climate drivers). We also address the role of knowledge uncertainty in adaptation decision-making. Decision-makers perceive HECC as having a low probability of occurrence and so they do not directly account for HECC within existing actions to address climate change. Such actions focus on incremental rather than transformative solutions in which non-climate drivers are at least as important, and in many cases more important, than climate change alone. This reflects the need to accommodate multiple concerns and low risk options (i.e. incremental change). Uncertainty in climate change information is not a significant barrier to decision-making and stakeholders indicated little need for more climate information in support of adaptation decision-making. There is, however, an identified need for more information about the implications of particular sectoral and cross-sectoral impacts under HECC scenarios. The outcomes of this study provide evidence to assist in contextualising climate change information by creating usable, cross-sectoral, decision-centred information.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000396124400004
WOS关键词CHANGE ADAPTATION ; INFORMATION ; POLICY ; VULNERABILITY ; IMPACT ; NEEDS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30009
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Univ Edinburgh, Inst Geog, Sch Geosci, Drummond St, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland;
2.Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden;
3.Univ Lisbon, Fac Sci, Lisbon, Portugal;
4.Adaptat Scotland SNIFFER, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Dunn, Miriam,Rounsevell, Mark D.,Carlsen, Henrik,et al. To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,141(2).
APA Dunn, Miriam,Rounsevell, Mark D.,Carlsen, Henrik,Dzebo, Adis,Lourenco, Tiago Capela,&Hagg, Joseph.(2017).To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?.CLIMATIC CHANGE,141(2).
MLA Dunn, Miriam,et al."To what extent are land resource managers preparing for high-end climate change in Scotland?".CLIMATIC CHANGE 141.2(2017).
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