Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2145-y |
National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes | |
Kay, A. L.1; Bell, V. A.1; Guillod, B. P.2,3,4; Jones, R. G.2,5; Rudd, A. C.1 | |
2018-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:585-599 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | The potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is of increasing concern across the globe. Here, a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is used to investigate historical trends and potential future changes in low flow frequency across Great Britain. The historical analyses use both observational data (1891-2015) and ensemble data from a regional climate model (1900-2006). The results show relatively few significant trends in historical low flows (2- or 20-year return period), whether based on 7- or 30-day annual minima. Significant negative trends seen in some limited parts of the country when using observational data are generally not seen when using climate model data. The future analyses use climate model ensemble data for both near future and far future time periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099 respectively), which are compared to a baseline sub-period from the historical ensemble (1975-2004). The results show future reductions in low flows, which are generally larger in the south of the country, at the higher (20-year) return period, and for the later time period. Reductions are more limited if the estimates of future potential evaporation include the effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stomatal resistance. Such reductions in river flow could have significant impacts on the aquatic environment and on agriculture, and present a challenge for water managers, especially as reductions in water supply are likely to occur alongside increases in demand. |
英文关键词 | Drought Low flows River flow Hydrology Great Britain |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428427200015 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; RIVER FLOWS ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHTS ; WATER ; RAINFALL ; RUNOFF ; MODEL ; UK ; UNCERTAINTY ; PROJECTIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30019 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England; 2.Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Environm Decis, Zurich, Switzerland; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 5.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kay, A. L.,Bell, V. A.,Guillod, B. P.,et al. National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:585-599. |
APA | Kay, A. L.,Bell, V. A.,Guillod, B. P.,Jones, R. G.,&Rudd, A. C..(2018).National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,585-599. |
MLA | Kay, A. L.,et al."National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):585-599. |
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