Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-018-2324-x |
Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections | |
Shortridge, Julie E.1; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.2 | |
2018-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
![]() |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 151页码:525-539 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | There is increasing concern that avoiding climate change impacts will require proactive adaptation, particularly for infrastructure systems with long lifespans. However, one challenge in adaptation is the uncertainty surrounding climate change projections generated by general circulation models (GCMs). This uncertainty has been addressed in different ways. For example, some researchers use ensembles of GCMs to generate probabilistic climate change projections, but these projections can be highly sensitive to assumptions about model independence and weighting schemes. Because of these issues, others argue that robustness-based approaches to climate adaptation are more appropriate, since they do not rely on a precise probabilistic representation of uncertainty. In this research, we present a new approach for characterizing climate change risks that leverages robust decision frameworks and probabilistic GCM ensembles. The scenario discovery process is used to search across a multi-dimensional space and identify climate scenarios most associated with system failure, and a Bayesian statistical model informed by GCM projections is then developed to estimate the probability of those scenarios. This provides an important advancement in that it can incorporate decision-relevant climate variables beyond mean temperature and precipitation and account for uncertainty in probabilistic estimates in a straightforward way. We also suggest several advancements building on prior approaches to Bayesian modeling of climate change projections to make them more broadly applicable. We demonstrate the methodology using proposed water resources infrastructure in Lake Tana, Ethiopia, where GCM disagreement on changes in future rainfall presents a major challenge for infrastructure planning. |
英文关键词 | Risks Uncertainty Adaptation Probabilistic projections Robust decision-making |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000452480700011 |
WOS关键词 | ADAPTIVE POLICY PATHWAYS ; ADAPTATION ; SUPPORT ; INFORMATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MANAGEMENT ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30050 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Virginia Tech, Biol Syst Engn, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA; 2.Johns Hopkins Univ, Earth & Planetary Sci, 3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shortridge, Julie E.,Zaitchik, Benjamin F.. Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:525-539. |
APA | Shortridge, Julie E.,&Zaitchik, Benjamin F..(2018).Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,525-539. |
MLA | Shortridge, Julie E.,et al."Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):525-539. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论