GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-018-2324-x
Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections
Shortridge, Julie E.1; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.2
2018-12-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号151页码:525-539
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

There is increasing concern that avoiding climate change impacts will require proactive adaptation, particularly for infrastructure systems with long lifespans. However, one challenge in adaptation is the uncertainty surrounding climate change projections generated by general circulation models (GCMs). This uncertainty has been addressed in different ways. For example, some researchers use ensembles of GCMs to generate probabilistic climate change projections, but these projections can be highly sensitive to assumptions about model independence and weighting schemes. Because of these issues, others argue that robustness-based approaches to climate adaptation are more appropriate, since they do not rely on a precise probabilistic representation of uncertainty. In this research, we present a new approach for characterizing climate change risks that leverages robust decision frameworks and probabilistic GCM ensembles. The scenario discovery process is used to search across a multi-dimensional space and identify climate scenarios most associated with system failure, and a Bayesian statistical model informed by GCM projections is then developed to estimate the probability of those scenarios. This provides an important advancement in that it can incorporate decision-relevant climate variables beyond mean temperature and precipitation and account for uncertainty in probabilistic estimates in a straightforward way. We also suggest several advancements building on prior approaches to Bayesian modeling of climate change projections to make them more broadly applicable. We demonstrate the methodology using proposed water resources infrastructure in Lake Tana, Ethiopia, where GCM disagreement on changes in future rainfall presents a major challenge for infrastructure planning.


英文关键词Risks Uncertainty Adaptation Probabilistic projections Robust decision-making
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号WOS:000452480700011
WOS关键词ADAPTIVE POLICY PATHWAYS ; ADAPTATION ; SUPPORT ; INFORMATION ; TEMPERATURE ; MANAGEMENT ; MODELS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
被引频次:23[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30050
专题气候变化
作者单位1.Virginia Tech, Biol Syst Engn, 155 Ag Quad Lane, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA;
2.Johns Hopkins Univ, Earth & Planetary Sci, 3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA
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Shortridge, Julie E.,Zaitchik, Benjamin F.. Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,151:525-539.
APA Shortridge, Julie E.,&Zaitchik, Benjamin F..(2018).Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections.CLIMATIC CHANGE,151,525-539.
MLA Shortridge, Julie E.,et al."Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections".CLIMATIC CHANGE 151(2018):525-539.
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