Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2003-3 |
How accurate are energy intensity projections? | |
Stern, David I. | |
2017-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 143 |
文章类型 | Letter |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth, and historical errors in projecting energy intensity can partly be explained by errors in projecting the rate of economic growth. However, recent projections of the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to economic growth probably overstate the likely future reduction in energy intensity even if economic growth is projected accurately. This could be because energy efficiency policies are not implemented as effectively as expected or because the economy-wide rebound effect is larger than modeling assumes. |
英文关键词 | Integrated assessment models Business as usual Projections |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407170600019 |
WOS关键词 | ECONOMIC-GROWTH ; EFFICIENCY ; EMISSIONS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30061 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Australian Natl Univ, Crawford Sch Publ Policy, 132 Lennox Crossing, Acton, ACT 2601, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Stern, David I.. How accurate are energy intensity projections?[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,143. |
APA | Stern, David I..(2017).How accurate are energy intensity projections?.CLIMATIC CHANGE,143. |
MLA | Stern, David I.."How accurate are energy intensity projections?".CLIMATIC CHANGE 143(2017). |
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