Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2039-4 |
Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense | |
Wong, Tony E.1; Bakker, Alexander M. R.1,2; Keller, Klaus1,3,4 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this "fast dynamic" contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamic mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1 A degrees C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21-74 cm this century (5-95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs. |
英文关键词 | Sea-level projections West Antarctic ice sheet Coastal flood defense Climate impacts Cliff failure and hydrofracturing |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000409001300019 |
WOS关键词 | ICE-SHEET ; EXPERT JUDGMENT ; NEW-ORLEANS ; CLIMATE ; RISE ; MODEL ; SUBSIDENCE ; SCENARIOS ; FRAMEWORK ; DRIVEN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30124 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, 2217 EESB, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Minist Infrastruct & Environm, Rijkswaterstaat, The Hague, Netherlands; 3.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15289 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wong, Tony E.,Bakker, Alexander M. R.,Keller, Klaus. Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(2). |
APA | Wong, Tony E.,Bakker, Alexander M. R.,&Keller, Klaus.(2017).Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(2). |
MLA | Wong, Tony E.,et al."Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.2(2017). |
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