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DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-1940-1 |
When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff response surfaces | |
Vormoor, Klaus1; Rossler, Ole2,3; Burger, Gerd1; Bronstert, Axel1; Weingartner, Rolf2,3 | |
2017-05-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 142 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Switzerland |
英文摘要 | Scenario-neutral response surfaces illustrate the sensitivity of a simulated natural system, represented by a specific impact variable, to systematic perturbations of climatic parameters. This type of approach has recently been developed as an alternative to top-down approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts. A major limitation of this approach is the underrepresentation of changes in the temporal structure of the climate input data (i.e., the seasonal and day-to-day variability) since this is not altered by the perturbation. This paper presents a framework that aims to examine this limitation by perturbing both observed and projected climate data time series for a future period, which both serve as input into a hydrological model (the HBV model). The resulting multiple response surfaces are compared at a common domain, the standardized runoff response surface (SRRS). We apply this approach in a case study catchment in Norway to (i) analyze possible changes in mean and extreme runoff and (ii) quantify the influence of changes in the temporal structure represented by 17 different climate input sets using linear mixed-effect models. Results suggest that climate change induced increases in mean and peak flow runoff and only small changes in low flow. They further suggest that the effect of the different temporal structures of the climate input data considerably affects low flows and floods (at least 21% influence), while it is negligible for mean runoff. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400095700016 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIOS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; FLOOD RISK ; PRECIPITATION ; CATCHMENTS ; MODELS ; BASIN |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30131 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Potsdam, Inst Earth & Environm Sci, Karl Liebknecht Str 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam, Germany; 2.Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Falkenpl 16, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; 3.Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Hallerstr 12, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Vormoor, Klaus,Rossler, Ole,Burger, Gerd,et al. When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff response surfaces[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,142. |
APA | Vormoor, Klaus,Rossler, Ole,Burger, Gerd,Bronstert, Axel,&Weingartner, Rolf.(2017).When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff response surfaces.CLIMATIC CHANGE,142. |
MLA | Vormoor, Klaus,et al."When timing matters-considering changing temporal structures in runoff response surfaces".CLIMATIC CHANGE 142(2017). |
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