Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6 |
Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change | |
Parker, Lauren E.; Abatzoglou, John T. | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:211-224 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed similar to 2-week delay in chill accumulation and similar to 1- and similar to 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers' long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425959700016 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL PROJECTIONS ; CALIFORNIA ; PHENOLOGY ; FUTURE ; FRUIT ; PRODUCTIVITY ; IMPACTS ; CROPS ; TREES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30141 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, 875 Perimeter Dr,MS 3021, Moscow, ID 83844 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Parker, Lauren E.,Abatzoglou, John T.. Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:211-224. |
APA | Parker, Lauren E.,&Abatzoglou, John T..(2018).Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,211-224. |
MLA | Parker, Lauren E.,et al."Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):211-224. |
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