Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2132-8 |
The safe carbon budget | |
van der Ploeg, Frederick1,2,3 | |
2018-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 147页码:47-59 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Netherlands; Russia |
英文摘要 | Cumulative emissions drive peak global warming and determine the carbon budget needed to keep temperature below 2 or 1.5 A degrees C. This safe carbon budget is low if uncertainty about the transient climate response is high and risk tolerance (willingness to accept risk of overshooting the temperature target) is low. Together with energy costs, this budget determines the optimal carbon price and how quickly fossil fuel is abated and replaced by renewable energy. This price is the sum of the present discounted value of all future losses in aggregate production due to emitting one ton of carbon today plus the cost of peak warming that rises over time to reflect the increasing scarcity of carbon as temperature approaches its upper limit. If policy makers ignore production losses, the carbon price rises more rapidly. If they ignore the peak temperature constraint, the carbon price rises less rapidly. The alternative of adjusting damages upwards to factor in the peak warming constraint leads initially to a higher carbon price which rises less rapidly. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000425959700005 |
WOS关键词 | 2 DEGREES-C ; SOCIAL COST ; CLIMATE ; EMISSIONS ; ECONOMICS ; TARGETS ; POLICY ; GROWTH ; RISK |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30172 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oxford, Dept Econ, OXCARRE, Manor Rd Bldg, Oxford OX1 3UQ, England; 2.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 3.St Petersburg State Univ, 7-9 Univ Skaya Nab, St Petersburg 199034, Russia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | van der Ploeg, Frederick. The safe carbon budget[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,147:47-59. |
APA | van der Ploeg, Frederick.(2018).The safe carbon budget.CLIMATIC CHANGE,147,47-59. |
MLA | van der Ploeg, Frederick."The safe carbon budget".CLIMATIC CHANGE 147(2018):47-59. |
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