Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2048-3 |
Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach | |
Mann, Michael E.1; Lloyd, Elisabeth A.2; Oreskes, Naomi3 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 144期号:2 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | The conventional approach to detecting and attributing climate change impacts on extreme weather events is generally based on frequentist statistical inference wherein a null hypothesis of no influence is assumed, and the alternative hypothesis of an influence is accepted only when the null hypothesis can be rejected at a sufficiently high (e.g., 95% or "p = 0.05") level of confidence. Using a simple conceptual model for the occurrence of extreme weather events, we show that if the objective is to minimize forecast error, an alternative approach wherein likelihoods of impact are continually updated as data become available is preferable. Using a simple "proof-of-concept," we show that such an approach will, under rather general assumptions, yield more accurate forecasts. We also argue that such an approach will better serve society, in providing a more effective means to alert decision-makers to potential and unfolding harms and avoid opportunity costs. In short, a Bayesian approach is preferable, both empirically and ethically. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000409001300004 |
WOS关键词 | ATTRIBUTION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30178 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Indiana Univ, Hist & Philosophy Sci Dept, 652 Ballantine Hall, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA; 3.Harvard Univ, Hist Sci Dept, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mann, Michael E.,Lloyd, Elisabeth A.,Oreskes, Naomi. Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2017,144(2). |
APA | Mann, Michael E.,Lloyd, Elisabeth A.,&Oreskes, Naomi.(2017).Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach.CLIMATIC CHANGE,144(2). |
MLA | Mann, Michael E.,et al."Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach".CLIMATIC CHANGE 144.2(2017). |
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