Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y |
County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands | |
Elias, Emile1; Schrader, T. Scott1; Abatzoglou, John T.2; James, Darren1; Crimmins, Mike3; Weiss, Jeremy4; Rango, Albert1 | |
2018-06-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATIC CHANGE
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ISSN | 0165-0009 |
EISSN | 1573-1480 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 148期号:3页码:355-369 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather- and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A "quick-look" metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in county-level precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10 mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (< 0.3 A degrees C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of county-level seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making. |
英文关键词 | Climate change Decision-making Agriculture Forestry Ranching USDA climate hubs Cooperative extension |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000434458700002 |
WOS关键词 | CROPS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30190 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.ARS, USDA, Jornada Expt Range, Las Cruces, NM 88003 USA; 2.Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA; 3.Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA; 4.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Elias, Emile,Schrader, T. Scott,Abatzoglou, John T.,et al. County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148(3):355-369. |
APA | Elias, Emile.,Schrader, T. Scott.,Abatzoglou, John T..,James, Darren.,Crimmins, Mike.,...&Rango, Albert.(2018).County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148(3),355-369. |
MLA | Elias, Emile,et al."County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148.3(2018):355-369. |
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