GSTDTAP  > 气候变化
DOI10.1007/s10584-017-2040-y
County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands
Elias, Emile1; Schrader, T. Scott1; Abatzoglou, John T.2; James, Darren1; Crimmins, Mike3; Weiss, Jeremy4; Rango, Albert1
2018-06-01
发表期刊CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN0165-0009
EISSN1573-1480
出版年2018
卷号148期号:3页码:355-369
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

Farmers, ranchers, and forest landowners across the USA make weather- and climate-related management decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales, often with input from local experts like crop consultants and cooperative extension (CE) personnel. In order to provide additional guidance to such longer-term planning efforts, we developed a tool that shows statistically downscaled climate projections of temperature and precipitation consolidated to the county level for the contiguous US. Using the county as a fundamental mapping unit encourages the use of this information within existing institutional structures like CE and other U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) programs. A "quick-look" metric based on the spatial variability of climate within each county aids in the interpretation of county-level information. For instance, relatively higher spatial variability within a county indicates that more localized information should be used to support stakeholder planning. Changes in annual precipitation show a latitudinal dipole where increases are projected for much of the northern US while declines are projected for counties across the southern US. Seasonal shifts in county-level precipitation are projected nationwide with declines most evident in summer months in most regions. Changes in the spatial variability of annual precipitation for most counties were less than 10 mm, indicating fairly spatially homogenous midcentury precipitation changes at the county level. Annual and seasonal midcentury temperatures are projected to increase across the USA, with relatively low change in the spatial variability (< 0.3 A degrees C) of temperature across most counties. The utility of these data is shown for forage and almond applications, both indicating a potential decline in production in some future years, to illustrate use of county-level seasonal projections in adaptation planning and decision-making.


英文关键词Climate change Decision-making Agriculture Forestry Ranching USDA climate hubs Cooperative extension
领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000434458700002
WOS关键词CROPS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/30190
专题气候变化
作者单位1.ARS, USDA, Jornada Expt Range, Las Cruces, NM 88003 USA;
2.Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA;
3.Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA;
4.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA
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GB/T 7714
Elias, Emile,Schrader, T. Scott,Abatzoglou, John T.,et al. County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands[J]. CLIMATIC CHANGE,2018,148(3):355-369.
APA Elias, Emile.,Schrader, T. Scott.,Abatzoglou, John T..,James, Darren.,Crimmins, Mike.,...&Rango, Albert.(2018).County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands.CLIMATIC CHANGE,148(3),355-369.
MLA Elias, Emile,et al."County-level climate change information to support decision-making on working lands".CLIMATIC CHANGE 148.3(2018):355-369.
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