Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states

doi:10.1126/science.abd7672

GSTDTAP > 气候变化

DOI	10.1126/science.abd7672
	Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states
	Ramanan Laxminarayan; Brian Wahl; Shankar Reddy Dudala; K. Gopal; Chandra Mohan B; S. Neelima; K. S. Jawahar Reddy; J. Radhakrishnan; Joseph A. Lewnard
	2020-11-06
发表期刊	Science
出版年	2020
英文摘要	By August 2020, India had reported several million cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with cases tending to show a younger age distribution than has been reported in higher-income countries. Laxminarayan et al. analyzed data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, which have developed rigorous contact tracing and testing systems (see the Perspective by John and Kang). Superspreading predominated, with 5% of infected individuals accounting for 80% of cases. Enhanced transmission risk was apparent among children and young adults, who accounted for one-third of cases. Deaths were concentrated in 50- to 64-year-olds. Incidence did not change in older age groups, possibly because of effective stay-at-home orders and social welfare programs or socioeconomic status. As in other settings, however, mortality rates were associated with older age, comorbidities, and being male. Science , this issue p. [691][1]; see also p. [663][2] Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data from the Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abd7672 [2]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abe9707
领域	气候变化 ; 资源环境
URL	查看原文
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文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/301997
专题	气候变化资源环境科学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramanan Laxminarayan,Brian Wahl,Shankar Reddy Dudala,et al. Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states[J]. Science,2020.
APA	Ramanan Laxminarayan.,Brian Wahl.,Shankar Reddy Dudala.,K. Gopal.,Chandra Mohan B.,...&Joseph A. Lewnard.(2020).Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states.Science.
MLA	Ramanan Laxminarayan,et al."Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states".Science (2020).